ANALYSIS
ARC faces a tough reform task amid criticisms

For the coup makers, the hardest part started immediately yesterday.
Power had been snatched from Thaksin Shinawatra's hands and put into theirs; now what should be done with it against a backdrop of international outcry and the fragile faith of local social forces, already been unsettled by heavy-handed measures to uproot the former popular leader's influences? With the middle-class relieved to see the back of Thaksin and his rural supporters lacking real leaders to register strong voices of dissent, local reaction has been largely subdued. It's a sharp contrast to the reaction from UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Australia, New Zealand, the European Union and Finland, among others. The coup leaders, who looked somewhat uneasy when briefing foreign diplomats yesterday, know full well that the level of discomfort will increase drastically unless further action is taken to justify what much of the world perceives as a mere power play. Despite their public reluctance to admit it, they are expected to launch a serious investigation into Thaksin's assets soon. Only a credible exposure of large-scale corruption can strengthen their case with the international community that his downfall was well-deserved. The next step is a quick transfer of power to a civilian interim government, and a major dilemma lies in this. Loosen their control too quickly and remnants of Thaksin's expansive political network could find a chance to fight back, either through guerrilla tactics, or the mobilisation of mobs. But keeping an iron hand too long would court greater international pressure and alienate local democracy advocates. Already finding the coup hard to swallow, many academics and media rights activists are frowning on the coup makers' clampdown on opponents, attempts to censor all media and the ban on public gatherings. Members of media rights groups were engaged in serious talks yesterday over whether to register an immediate and strong protest against the intended censorship - but agreed to wait until the dust settles down. The controversial measures restricting civil liberties are post-coup textbook steps. But the coup leaders have precious little time to keep them in effect. But lowering their guard after installing a civilian government runs the risk of Thaksin's powerful supporters striking back. A respectable interim prime minister is a must, and this person's appointment must be swiftly followed by a clear-cut road map back to full democracy, observers say. It seems not that complicated but the Administrative Reform Council (ARC) has a tougher situation on its hands than the National Peacekeeping Council after the NPKC toppled the democratically elected Chatichai Choonhavan administration in 1991. Even without having to worry about the possibility of Chatichai striking back, the NPKC refused to leave the political scene although the interim government it installed, led by widely-recognised Anand Panyarachun, was doing a good job on its own. Its addiction to power led to popular resentment that erupted in the May 1992 bloody street protests. How the ARC can support a civilian government and ensure Thailand achieves true political reform, without getting too much involved in politics itself, while being able to help guard against any Thaksin comeback attempt, is a highly delicate task. Making it more daunting is the fact that the ARC has to do what no coup leaders in modern history have been able to - let go.
|