When will caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra return to Thailand?

Although astrologers believe that he will choose to come back after Friday in order to allow a solar eclipse to come to pass, the latest reports suggest he will return tomorrow morning.

Super-optimists among his opponents thought it would be a very long holiday, hoping that if Thaksin intends to live by the military sword, he would die by it. This theory of him being forced to turn his current overseas tour into a bid to seek exile sounds like a joke at the moment, but it surely would gain new weight if he abruptly changed his reported plan to arrive tomorrow and extended his trip.

How big will today's anti-Thaksin rally be?

The organisers, the People's Alliance for Democracy, promise a vociferous crowd of tens of thousands. That's a long shot, considering the nation now is so bruised, bored and tired.

 Will there ever be an election this year?

The answer is an emphatic "Yes!" if the candidate list is free from the name of you-know-who. Cross your fingers that he is unable to brave the new storm of protests and resistance, both open and underground, and persist on saying "I'll make up my mind after the poll". The most likely timeframe for the election is the second half of November.

What's Thai Rak Thai's future?

Doom and gloom. The Criminal Court's ruling last week giving additional jail terms to the three former election commissioners, this time for helping Thai Rak Thai in its poll fraud case, must have made party members quake in their boots. The biggest implication of the ruling is the court's tacit endorsement of the Nam committee's report, which concluded that there was enough evidence to believe Thai Rak Thai hired small parties to act as its competitors in the April 2 election.

With the Criminal Court lending so much credit to the Nam report in the case against the former EC trio, the spotlight will become more glaring on the Constitution Court, which will have to rule on whether Thai Rak Thai is guilty as charged. It will require the brightest legal minds on the planet to deliver a not-guilty verdict without pitting the two courts against each other.

There are two schools of thought on when the Constitution Court will hand down its ruling. Most observers believe the verdict will come after the election, as the trial needs to be thorough and transparent. A minority think that if the verdict is going to be "guilty", it may not be a good idea to issue it after Thai Rak Thai wins, say, 15 million votes in the next election.

If the poll is delayed beyond November, the Constitution Court may be tempted to start the trial soon.

But election or not, don't blink.

How about the Democrats?

The two Criminal Court rulings against the former election commissioners, found guilty of malfeasance in their handling of the April 2 election and ignoring evidence of alleged fraud committed by the Thai Rak Thai, have sent champagne corks flying within Abhisit Vejjajiva's party. Accused of hiring the small parties to frame Thai Rak Thai, the Democrats are claiming they are now close to absolution.

Why do a large portion of Thais believe the "car bomb" was a hoax?

1) The leader's credibility problem. 2) Police investigators' credibility problem. 3) The suspects' credibility problem. 4) The car's credibility problem (Was it parked, or had it been circling the area, etc?) 5) The bomb's credibility problem (The story changes everyday about its power, range of destruction and whether it was ready to be detonated).

Who will be the next prime minister?

Anyone but Thaksin Shinawatra, no matter what he does next. Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak remains the top favourite, even though he makes it look like he will have to be dragged, kicking and screaming, to the top post.

The Aung San Suu Kyi comparison - was Thaksin serious?

It's not a bad one actually. Given a choice between Thaksin and her, it's obvious who the junta would pick as their friend. On the other hand, ask the PAD who between the two is more qualified to lead Thailand and there you go. So, in a way, both political outcasts share quite similar plights. Not sure how the iron lady feels about this, though.

Tulsathit Taptim