The consequences of the past 17 coups should be more than enough to remind everyone that military intervention is never a good solution. The use of force to move politics has proven futile, and soldiers, once they get a taste of power, are prone to install dictatorships. Such instincts could become very raw at this time of divisions.

Army chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin last week openly blamed government politicians for stoking the speculation about military intervention. Sonthi, seen as a staunch advocate of military professionalism, said the country could move forward only if the government and the military worked together in a climate of mutual trust. His comment was an indirect warning that although the government might think leaking coup rumours was a justified pre-emptive measure to foil potential takeover plots, it was in fact crying wolf.

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his top aide Prommin Lertsuridej must be held largely responsible for the coup speculation. Before departing for his overseas trip, Thaksin made an unscheduled visit to his military ally and commander of the Second Cavalry Division, Maj-General Sanit Phrommas. He later gave an unsolicited interview from Finland alluding to the possibility of military intervention. Echoing his boss, Prommin linked coup plotters to the masterminds of the alleged car bomb scheme against his boss.

According to government insiders, Thaksin firmly suspected that his allies-turned-opponents, comprising a clique of retired military officers from Chulachomklao Class 7, had put out a contract on his life. These retired officers are veterans of numerous coups and have been projecting their clout out over the political landscape since the 1980s. Thaksin relied on the Class 7 officers to catapult himself into politics. He installed these retired officers in the Internal Security Operation Command in order to help him coax various military cliques into rallying behind his consolidation of power.

After politics became polarised and the officers' mentor, former military leader Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, departed from the government, many military allies were disillusioned with Thaksin's leadership style. The discovery of a car loaded with explosives last month apparently left the embattled prime minister shaken, although a large portion of the public remains uncertain over whether this was in fact a hoax intended to drum up sympathy.

Whoever was behind the car bomb has upped the political crisis to another level of risk. The situation is believed to have been made more complex by double agents working on both sides of the government fence. And the reshuffle season could not have come at a worse time. If Thaksin continues to meddle with military transfers in the hope of smoking out his opponents, he will end up alienating professional soldiers. Rows have persisted because various cliques have sensed cronyism. Three key cliques - Pre-Cadet Class 10 headed by General Pornchai Kranlert; Pre-Cadet Class 7 led by General Paisal Katanyu; and Pre-Cadet Class 9 headed by Lt General Montri Sangkhasap - are jockeying for positions. They all expect one of their classmates to carry the Army's torch by replacing Sonthi next year. The friendly race to the top military position is a tradition and should be encouraged if it is based on meritocracy and professionalism.

Fears that Thaksin is attempting to prop up his military allies has caused bickering. Four senior military officers have broken ranks to petition Privy Council chairman General Prem Tinsulanonda. Admiral Bannawit Kengrien, deputy defence permanent secretary, has sought a review by calling for the Election Commission to check the proposed re-assignments.

Thaksin's problems are bad enough without military involvement. He will make them insoluble by dragging the generals onto the scene.