The ambiguity of his comments offered a paradoxically clear signal that he was mulling a break from active politics.

That means he does not want to pursue another term as premier, preferring instead to stay behind the scenes as the man who still calls the shots, while a nominee or puppet appears to run the show.

During the talk, the mood swings were on display for all to see. Thaksin presented a characteristic mixture of self-importance, self-righteousness, bravado, moans, beseeching and, of course, the usual spin and half-truths. The result was a well-concocted episode aimed at drawing sympathy from the gullible and naïve, as always.

If his statements were not due to incoherence or anxiety over his immediate political future, Thaksin must have been tired after a long bout with pressure and adversity, most of it self-inflicted. The blotches under his eyes were larger, the lines on his face deeper. Billions of baht worth of family fortune has obviously failed to make him happy, physically or mentally. A brief stay in London before heading over to Havana, Cuba, and then on to New York to attend the UN General Assembly meeting will give him some time to decide whether he should return to Thailand and face whatever is awaiting him, including the potential risks to his person.

He is scheduled to return home in the middle of this week. The pro-democracy movement made it clear over the weekend that he is no longer welcome here.

They are planning another street march on Wednesday, a crucial one, to end Thaksin's regime and push for political reform.

Despite his tough talk, Thaksin realises that the situation has become more difficult for him. It is not easy clinging to power while past misdeeds are starting to come to light. Officials and public-pressure groups are slowly uncovering more shenanigans in the sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore, thus threatening the consummation of the multi-billion-baht deal.

Senior party members are obviously resigned to the fact that the boss has made up his mind to call it quits - at least temporarily, until another chance to spring back presents itself. They are loath to admit the possibility for fear of breaking up the party or causing disarray among members, who could flee to greener pastures.

Going to Finland and then London presented Thaksin with a safe way to leave the country without creating much suspicion that his tickets were one-way. During the past several months, if not longer, Thaksin's family has been moving assets abroad. A special flight, a chartered Airbus A340-600 with 56 pieces of luggage, left Bangkok at 6.10am on Thursday for London, and 30 of those pieces belong to Thaksin's family.

On that flight there were only 25 passengers, with six VIPs occupying the first-class section. Among them were Thaksin's aide-cum-secretary Phadung Limcharoenrat, who was part of the entourage to the Havana meeting. Seated in business class were officials, while Thaksin's maids were among 12 passengers in the economy class. It was probably the last major lot from Bangkok for the family's recently acquired estate in a London suburb.

A peculiar aspect of the flight was that it left the Air Force terminal at Don Muang instead of the international terminal. Understandably, the luggage could not be inspected by customs officials. His mansion in Thon Buri is quiet, guarded only by two policemen with a car.

Now that his assets and family members are safely out of the country, Thaksin can feel at ease as far as their security is concern. At least they will not face unpleasant greetings, such as boos and jeers, in public places or plush shopping centres as in the past, much to their bitterness and embarrassment.

What is going to happen if Thaksin decides to return to Bangkok later this week? It would be a daring political adventure, including the risk of bloodletting if a street confrontation occurred between his supporters and pro-democracy groups. To prevent such an ugly incident, intense pressure is building up, with powerful elements trying to convince Thaksin that he should remain abroad. Call it self-imposed or forced exile, or whatever.

Thaksin's setback has affected the morale of party members, who have not been getting special allowances and generous campaign funding. Thaksin is expected to run on the party list to prevent a break-up, though he might not be around to head political rallies. He would not have to wait in Bangkok for the election to take place if there were a real threat on his life.

His political future can be gauged by whether he intends to head back home this week. At the very least he has to complete a military reshuffle list, which will determine his support in the armed forces and his survival amidst widespread antagonism that has now grown to include university lecturers and students.

Thaksin is not only walking a tightrope, he is also keeping the country's fate hanging in the balance as well. That's why a respected figure recently suggested that Thaksin either has to sacrifice himself by quitting politics or the country will have to sacrifice him to prevent calamity.

 Sopon Onkgara