Things have grown so heated that there has been intense speculation over whether the trip was a flight into uncertainty.

He must have extracted some assurances from former classmates in key military positions so that he would feel at ease setting foot outside the country. Everything will be fine, the support of his friends remains unshaken. Indeed, what could go wrong - barring unforeseen circumstances or unpleasant surprises, of course?

Are things really peaceful and serene for Thaksin's power base back home? Not quite. Police investigators are still enjoying their witch-hunt in the car bomb frenzy. A few military personnel have even been detained as suspects in the bizarre assassination plot, which has grown into an entertaining topic of discussion.

The so-called "confessions" sound more like cock-and-bull stories to seasoned investigators. The evidence and material witnesses are as flimsy as negligees, raising doubts whether any of this will stand up to cross-examination by sharp-minded lawyers in court.

As police ratchet up their efforts, they have also driven a wedge deeper into their already fragile relationship with the military. The air of mutual distrust thickens. The public is starting to get the feeling that the country has become a police state, with former police officers holding key positions.

Thaksin's trip overseas poses a high degree of risks for the caretaker prime minister. The vacuum of power filled temporarily by his deputy must withstand increasing public pressure and disquiet resulting from the proposed military reshuffle, in which Thaksin's classmates stand to grab less powerful seats than they had sought. If nothing happens during this trip to Finland, there will be yet another spine-tingling moment when he leaves again to attend a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement in Cuba. He will be quite far from home should there be some untoward incident.

Can Thaksin really trust his classmates in the military? Maybe one or two in key positions still remain loyal to him. Others have gradually moved out of his orbit as they grapple with a question that has seriously disturbed their conscience and self-esteem.

"Do you treasure the relationship you had with Thaksin during your two years in pre-cadet school more than your commitment to the many years you served in the military?"

During the past few weeks, military generals have been given information about massive corruption in the government, widespread cronyism and the self-serving pursuit of wealth, among other misdeeds on the part of the government. They are also aware of the networks of sweetheart contracts involving Suvarnabhumi Airport and other mega-projects that will enrich certain people for decades.

Key commanders have been convinced that if these networks of corruption are allowed to prosper, the country will face a ruinous future. The damage to the national political, economic and social structure will be unprecedented.

The Senate's selection of a new Election Commission was further testimony that the people cannot expect lawmakers to work for the national interest. Politicians seem incapable of fulfilling the people's wish for a promising future, as far as the first step towards political reform is concerned. The pattern of votes confirmed earlier public suspicions that some senators must have had their hands greased to serve the interest of the powers-that-be. That's why those candidates who have been hostile to corrupt politicians in power were not elected. The public will have to settle for less and hope that the new commission can enforce fair play.

In a bad sign for Thaksin, murmurs about a possible coup d'etat have found many receptive ears among those who have come to realise that there is no plausible means to effect a change of government and usher out the caretaker leader without violence. If the people are divided and poised to fight for what they believe in, or duped to protect somebody, then there are few ways forward. With networks of political cronies in among the civil service, the independent agencies and the judiciary, and with politicians with private armies all working to preserve the increasing tendency of authoritarian rule, a general election is not likely to be a workable solution. This is especially true as long as big money is allowed to play a big roll.

That's why certain powerful figures and people in high places have concluded that "extraordinary circumstances must be dealt with by extraordinary means". It doesn't take much to understand this situation. The remaining questions are how and when.

What has Thaksin done so far? Publicly he has vowed to fight on and intends to win the election, if it ever comes. The public has not noticed his gradual transfers of financial and material assets to his London estates through ships and as airfreight.

A Russian transport plane was chartered recently to carry a huge lot of cargo. It landed at an airbase with the permission of Air Force authorities. No need to ask for details. The next flight may be just for family members and kin who want to leave in a hurry.

Sopon Onkgara