Tony Blair is suffering the effects of a revolt within his Labour Party. Even though Blair signalled his intention to stand down as prime minister, that wasn't enough for the MPs and key ministers who want him to provide a definite date for his exit from No 10 Downing Street.

Less than 15 months after the Labour Party's historic third-term victory, Blair now has to face the fact that his popularity has sunk to an unsalvageable level. His political life is about to come to an end. He may continue to serve through the mid-term until May of next year, but the Labour Party will focus on rallying its support behind putting a new leader in place.

Blair's opponents are of the opinion that if he were allowed to stay on, Labour might lose the next election, which would not come for another three years. It is strictly the party's business - just ask Margaret Thatcher about the similar experience she had at the hands of the Conservative Party.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown is waiting in the wings. His knife is soaked with Blair's blood. But Brown is not yet an automatic successor. He will have to take on other contenders for the glory.

Is Somkid Jatusripitak Thailand's answer to Gordon Brown? A revolt within the Thai Rak Thai Party is also simmering. Most key members from caretaker Labour Minister Somsak Thepsuthin to caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit would like Thaksin Shinawatra to spell out his political intentions. Will he run for the premiership in the next election, or will he take a break from politics?

Key Thai Rak Thai members now want Somkid to lead the party during this transition, however, unlike their counterparts in the Labour Party, they don't have the guts to tell Thaksin that his time is over.

If Thaksin were to announce that he would refrain from pursuing the premiership, then the political crisis, which has engulfed the country since the start of the year, would disappear.

The Thai Rak Thai Party then get its act together and move ahead. Somkid would take the helm, and Thai Rak Thai would certainly win the next election.

Blair is facing pressure more from within his own party than from outside. This is the opposite of Thaksin's situation. Since January this year, following his family's tax-free sale of Shin Corp to Temasek of Singapore, Thaksin has been facing mounting pressure from social and civic groups, the middle-class, professionals, academics, some quarters of the print media and the Thai elite for him to step down.

They have called for him to resign from politics because he longer has the moral authority to serve as prime minister.

In the beginning, all Thai Rak Thai members threw their unquestioning support behind him. Rather than addressing the Shin Corp deal in a straightforward way, Thaksin decided to dissolve Parliament in February and asked the voters whether they wanted him back in office or not.

But then one political crisis began to follow another. The Constitution Court nullified the April 2 election. Thaksin declared war on General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council. In a ruling by the Criminal Court, the sitting election commissioners were stripped of their posts. The Thai Rak Thai Party was threatened with dissolution at the hands of the Constitution Court for allegedly violating election law. The latest crisis was a car-bomb incident, allegedly designed to assassinate the prime minister.

Now the key Thai Rak Thai members have agreed almost unanimously that Thaksin is dead in the water.

In the meantime, Somkid is playing a hide-and-seek game. Thaksin's power and his legacy have been so overwhelming that Somkid can't make his presence felt just yet. Thaksin meanwhile is calculating his exit strategy.

Thaksin must have realised that the election would not take place, because otherwise he would not be insisting on running as prime minister. For if he were to make a comeback, he would further widen the political divide, which has been ravaging the entire nation.

But will Thaksin's opponents let him off the hook after he takes a break from politics? Nobody is going to guarantee Thaksin that a committee won't be set up to probe his family's wealth.

As such, Thaksin has no choice but to keep on fighting until he can negotiate a settlement ensuring his survival and that of his family.

With Thaksin's opponents starting to campaign against him by exerting all kinds of social pressure, we are experiencing a recurring mood of anger and frustration, similar to that in February and March.

Thaksin has embraced an-eye-for-an-eye strategy. Any attack against him will be dealt with in kind. The violent incidents at Siam Paragon and at Centralworld serve as a good example. Thaksin bashers were badly beaten by his supporters.

Members of the People's Alliance for Democracy have been warned to limit their political activities. If they go upcountry to rally against Thaksin, they could well be facing physical violence.

Thai politics is racing to the finish line. If the confrontation continues in this mode, chances of further violence are strong. Bloodshed appears inevitable before Thailand can afford to have a new leader.

Thai Rak Thai may lose the opportunity to form the next government if it is unable to get rid of Thaksin quickly enough. Somkid does not appear to be the Gordon Brown type - someone who can make things happen.

If the leadership crisis within Thai Rak Thai drags on, the next prime minister might not come from that party.

Thanong Khanthong