More than a week has passed and police investigators have yet to convince the public that the plot was real and not stage-managed for Thaksin to gain some political points. No further culprits have been nailed so far despite the police claim of solid evidence.

The investigators face pressure to wrap up the case without leaving public doubts before the general election, which is likely to be postponed from October 15 to an as yet unknown date. If the hullabaloo over the assassination attempt dies down without result, the trumpeting over the issue could be lost in voters' memories by that time.

If the election date is indeed postponed, Thaksin will have to deal with more weighty obstacles and challenges within and outside his party. Faction leaders are plotting their own survival plans as signs become clearer that Thaksin may eventually be ousted by mounting pressure or other causes.

If the negative trend against Thaksin continues then a victory in the general election will no longer assure him of a stable national leadership unless he resorts to strong-arm measures such as control of political movements.

A major faction within the Thai Rak Thai Party has approached a few respected public figures of credibility and good standing to take key Cabinet posts in a post-Thaksin era. This shows that support within the party for the embattled businessman-cum-politician is weakening and he may be jettisoned for the sake of the party's survival.

There has been grumbling among the party's election candidates about the drying up of financial lifelines, making their plight of being jobless more miserable. A lot of ex-MPs have no other careers and they depend on the House salaries and special allowances provided by faction leaders.

The reluctance to release campaign funds to candidates raises doubts over what the faction chiefs themselves think about the party's fate as they await a Constitution Court ruling on whether it will be dissolved due to wrongdoing related to the previous polls.

Faction leaders are also doubtful about whether Thaksin could function as a credible leader even if the party wins the next election because he cannot move around freely without tight security due to fear of assassination, whether perceived or groundless.

The blasts at 22 bank branches in Yala this week has shaken his political standing, showing him up as a government leader who no longer has control over the situation there. Repeated trials and failures in seeking an effective solution to the insurgency have portrayed him as a national liability.

Many people have openly suggested that an immediate remedial measure to improve the situation, before any move towards a workable solution, is to usher Thaksin out and find someone who has a full grasp of the situation and acceptance among the Muslim community.

Political arrogance and hubris, among other follies, have long been predicted to be Thaksin's Waterloo. It now appears that there are more than a few factors that could be the death knell of his eventual downfall.

Thaksin has never recovered from his failure to deal with the multifaceted problem in the terrorism-prone area. The loud mouth has been turned off for months, during which he has not set foot in the region for fear of the security threat and widespread protests by southerners.

His status as a political darling for some people in the North and Northeast does not hold in the South. His charm, big money and spin never had a strong effect there either. The people there are too good to fall for his line of soft sell and freebies.

What next? Thaksin suffered another setback when he conceded recently that he would have to make do with a postponement of the general election. Though he commands the advantage of being in government, he is also an open target for all sorts of trouble. Failure to deal with chronic and new problems will further weaken his hand.

Legal attempts to silence critics through costly lawsuits or other measures will only cast him in a bad light, especially when such tricks are known abroad, making his track record on human-rights abuse more pronounced as well.

How long can he tough it out in the face of pressing adversity? His admirers and supporters are working hard to hit out at critics who are revered public figures, including General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, and former prime minister Anand Panyarachun.

The unleashing of political attack dogs against General Prem tended to make matters worse and antagonise the military, which has been weakened by political interference.

Instead of rational argument and logic, Thaksin's men prefer sarcastic comments and rudeness as their main weapons. They will soon feel the boomerang effect once the public decides that politics without civility and the arrogance are beyond tolerance.

Sopon Onkgara