Whether it was an assassination plot or a bomb hoax, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appears to be reaping political gains from the suspense that has built up ahead of the October 15 election.

But will there be an election on that date?

Let's take a look at how Thaksin stands to gain from the assassination plot, which may end up serving as an overture to any future violence.

First, the assassination plot, real or unreal, caught everybody off guard. The prime minister's enemies, some of whom might really want to remove him from politics once and for all, now have to think twice before they make any further move to undermine his political standing.

As the country drifts dangerously into the final episode, it is not important whether Lieutenant Thawatchai Klinchana was driving around with the bomb devices in his car near the prime minister's residence with the intention of killing Thaksin or not.

Amid all the confusion and bitter political division, image is more important than substance.

The senior police officers investigating the bomb plot, which took place last Thursday, all have close ties to the prime minister. In Thailand, it is difficult to differentiate between fact and fiction because sometimes fiction is more credible than fact.

Second, a group of supporters of the prime minister, who called themselves "Rak Ya", or grass-roots, went to the residence of the President of the Privy Council, General Prem Tinsulanonda, the following day to ask for protection for Thaksin. The prime minister's critics interpreted the Rak Ya mob's noisemaking in front of Prem's residence as part of a ploy to shift the blame for the bomb plot to Prem.

In late June, Thaksin accused a "charismatic person beyond the Constitution" as playing a behind-the-scenes role in undermining his leadership. Most people believed that Prem was the charismatic person. Thaksin's challenge, however, was greeted with a muted response from the Thai elite. He had drawn a line in the sand.

With the bomb plot and the

subsequent Rak Ya appearance in front of Prem's residence, it is clear that the political confrontation between Thaksin and the Thai elite has moved to another dangerous level. The first shot has been fired.

Third, the assassination plot should bolster Thaksin's bargaining power in the annual military reshuffle. Thaksin has already blamed people in the military for being involved in the bomb plot against him, so he should have the legitimacy to nominate key appointments in order to guarantee his safety.

The military reshuffle, which also represents a power play, will decide who has the bigger say in terms of arsenals and tanks, which might be crucial in a final political showdown. Thaksin has garnered strong loyalty from key military officials, who are ready to stand by his side; whereas it is not clear whether the "military of the nation" would really have the guts or show their mettle in the final episode.

Fourth, the assassination plot has continued to dominate the national media to the extent that the earlier clashes at Siam Paragon and Central World in downtown Bangkok have been downplayed so that the Thai public has almost forgotten the incidents.

At that time, supporters of the prime minister were getting bad press for hurting detractors of the premier who sought to embarrass him with shouts of "Thaksin - Get Out". They punched and trampled these detractors - some of whom are associated with the People's Alliance for Democracy - while the police turned a blind eye to the one-sided beating.

Fifth, the assassination plot has heightened political tension ahead of the October 15 election. Thaksin should gain more sympathy from his supporters from the incident. He really wants the general election to take place on schedule, but the nomination and confirmation of the new members of the Election Commission needs more time.

Most people, including Thaksin, agree that the general election will have to be delayed - but Thaksin would prefer the delay to be brief.

Polls conducted by the Thai Rak Thai Party claim to show that the party should win 300 seats in the election, while the opposition parties would gain 200 at the most. If the election were to take place, Thai Rak Thai would form the next government with a majority of seats.

But the political divide has reached a point where Thaksin's enemies will seek to block the election to prevent him from making a comeback, while Thaksin will push for the election to reclaim his legitimacy. His party is poised to win for sure.

News reports indicate that violence or bloodshed is inevitable ahead of the election and that the anti-Thaksin movement will stage rallies to obstruct the election.

Thaksin's supporters will not sit still - as demonstrated by the Siam Paragon and Central World episodes - but will come out en masse to confront members of the anti-Thaksin movement.

Then, the outcome of Thai politics will be decided moment by moment.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation