While the debate on the authenticity of Thursday's "bomb plot" purportedly aimed at assassinating caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has a long way to run, many are already listing the short-term impact from the incident.

One short-term gain for Thaksin is that he has garnered sympathy from his supporters.

This was illustrated by a group of 100 followers who gathered outside the home of Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda pleading for Thaksin's safety.

Surely, more of Thaksin's so-called "grassroots" support is likely to feel they must stand up and support their man - at the ballot box or in the street.

The foiled plot led to Thaksin cancelling provincial visits for safety reasons.

Prasang Mongkonsiri, a former MP preparing to run again in Uthai Thani, said that would not have an impact on party popularity in the constituency.

"The PM and his party have been in their hearts for five years since assuming power," he said. "They have no love for other parties. They now want the premier to be safe."

At the same time, Thaksin can at least expect temporary breathing room from growing internal party pressure to state his intention about seeking another term as prime minister if the Thai Rak Thai wins the general election.

Some leading party members are reported to be rebelling and backing deputy party leader Somkid Jatusripitak to replace Thaksin.

Some have even been accused of cooperating with Thaksin's opponents to see him vanish permanently from the political scene. Another short-term repercussion is that impromptu anti-Thaksin protests will be strictly controlled by his security detail.

Last, but not least, the news media and the public will be preoccupied with the supposed assassination plot for at least a week. There will be less coverage of other issues such as the nominee debate surrounding Kularb Kaew Co Ltd and the Shin Corp sale.

There are negatives, too.

The first will be a greater polarisation of society. Many in the anti-Thaksin camp believe the bomb plot was staged for the premier's own gain.

Sudarat Keyuraphan, a deputy party leader, yesterday publicly denied that. It was the  third straight day that a key Thai Rak Thai member had to issue denials. However, the Thaksin opposition is convinced this is nothing but the latest stunt.

"A plot to assassinate oneself can't be considered a threat ... indeed, we're in a new era when one needs to try to assassinate oneself. But, it must not succeed because if it happens to succeed, the benefit will fall to the other party," Kittisobhano Bhikku, leader of the Sekhiyadhamma network of monks, said on Friday.

Economic confidence could be eroded due to greater political instability.

Chulalongkorn University security expert Panitan Wattanayagorn said yesterday the incident had clouded the Kingdom in a climate of fear.

Talk of the bomb's allegedly destructive power has also fuelled panic here and projected an overblown threat to the international community, said Panitan.

So, no matter which theory one subscribes to, the further polarisation of society is a by-product of the "bomb plot". People like Gothom Arya, president of the National Economic and Social Advisory Council, urge the public to seek solutions to the current political crisis.

Gothom warns that the plot - whether real or not - is a danger sign affecting all aspects of society.

Pravit Rojanaphruk,

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation