Some say he's a loyal servant of Thaksin, so loyal that he would never abandon him in this life. This school of thought rules out a rebellion and predicts that the most Somkid will do in this political crisis is quietly leave the scene. Somkid, it is believed, will do what Thaksin persuades him to do. This loyalty has been proven time and again as evidenced in his willingness to be moved around in countless Cabinet reshuffles. Whatever steps he takes now will be influenced by and serve the best interests of his mentor.

Others see in Somkid a thinly veiled ambitious streak, if not the beginnings of a revolt in progress. They think Somkid is not a man Thaksin trusts, but actually fears. This theory paints a typical relationship between the Number One and Number Two in any political world: one consumed by suspicion and paranoia, and the other feeling that he does not get the credit he deserves. Somkid, it is rumoured, is ready to lead a mutiny and wrest control of Thai Rak Thai's helm from the big boss. There are claims that he has confided to some people that if he were to become Thailand's next prime minister, one of the first things he would do would be to ensure that nobody calls him Thaksin's puppet.

The "Somkid as Rebel" theory seems to have gained strength, and speculation will remain no matter what the Thai Rak Thai Party, or even Thaksin or Somkid themselves, try to say. This is because Thaksin's clout, so impregnable last year, is very fragile right now. Formerly an irreplaceable asset, Thaksin has become something of a liability for Thai Rak Thai, although he is still hugely popular among the rural poor. The big question now is whether the party he founded and led almost single-handedly, is starting to outgrow him. If that is the case, the only man who will be able to rescue Thai Rak Thai in the event of Thaksin's political demise or voluntary departure is Somkid.

Whether he wants it or not, the time may come for Somkid to rise to the occasion. Thaksin's future is strewn with major booby-traps. The fact that his return to power will prolong the present crisis is enough to warrant a party coup. For months, Thaksin used legal and constitutional deadlocks to his advantages, but now the uncertainty is backfiring on him. Thai Rak Thai's second tier apparently wants a clear-cut answer to that ultimate question: Will he quit politics or at least take a long break? And they want it now.

Apparently, what critics describe as an ad hoc party created by Thaksin to protect his massive vested interests and reap some more, is doing a bit of soul-searching. Despite its immensely popular "populist" programmes, the party has been based on little else except the charisma of its leader. Thai Rak Thai in its present form is not prepared for life without Thaksin. One could even argue that it's not a party prepared to work in the opposition bloc. And in spite of its unprecedented parliamentary mandate, the party has failed to live up to expectations as far as legislative work is concerned, with its domination of the House of Representatives often utilised for political expediency and not the public interest.

The party needs to be re-engineered, it needs a new structure, beyond a review of the so-called Thaksinomics platforms that have been widely criticised as being unsustainable. Men like Somkid cannot avoid the responsibility of deciding which direction Thai Rak Thai should be heading. They can let it shoot up or spiral down in accordance with Thaksin's personal fortunes and stars. Or they can decide that in sustainable politics, no man shall be bigger than his institution.