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Mon, August 14, 2006 : Last updated 20:20 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Business > THAI tagged a 'buy' amid struggling sector





THAI tagged a 'buy' amid struggling sector

The outlook for airline stocks seems to be clouding over as rising oil prices push up operating costs.

But the Thai flag carrier has been picked by analysts as a "buy" after its third-quarter result swung to net profit from loss.

Before the recovery in net profit, Thai Airways International Plc had been given an "underweight" or "sell" by several brokerages.

JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Ltd was advising investors to underweight THAI out of concern over its depleting cash balance and failure to resolve management issues, even though it was under less pressure from fuel price hikes than its peers.

Asia Plus Securities called for dumping THAI in the short term as the airline reported earnings in its fiscal second quarter ended March that were 16 per cent below forecast.

The securities house said it would likely lower the airline's earnings forecast for this fiscal year ending next month by 30 per cent to Bt7.55 billion from the previous forecast of Bt10.42 billion.

However, THAI posted an improved performance for its third quarter, which swung to a net profit of Bt473 million, compared to last year's Bt4.78 billion net loss in the same quarter.

KGI Securities (Thailand) Plc recently issued a "buy" on THAI for posting a net profit in the third quarter that was in line with estimates.

The third-quarter results were boosted by an extraordinary gain from selling three MD-11 aircraft worth Bt1.5 billion. However, this gain was partially offset by a foreign-exchange loss of Bt1.1 billion. On an operating basis, the company suffered a Bt2.8 billion net loss, but this figure was slightly better than expected.

The securities house said the rebound in core net profit of THAI was mainly derived from the recovery in tourism, increased fuel surcharges and strict cost controls. The number of its passengers in the quarter was 10.2 per cent above last year and its passenger-load factor was also better - 74 per cent compared to 67 per cent in the same quarter last year.

Other airlines, including Japan Airlines and Malaysian Airlines, are still racking up losses while THAI could turn in a net profit, KGI Research pointed out. THAI's stock appears to be undervalued, as its price-to-earnings ratio is 7-8 times, sharply lower than the industry average of more than 20 times.

THAI closed on Friday at Bt39, unchanged from the previous day.

KGI forecast the carrier would earn Bt12.44 billion on sales of Bt187.49 billion for the full fiscal year.








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