Anyone who does not fall for his soft sell and spin - like most Bangkokians, apparently - he ridicules as naïve and stupid.

When he got on the microphone for his radio spin session yesterday he denied having said that all Bangkokians fall into this camp. "I just meant some people," he cooed. This was vintage Thaksin - he barked, bit his foes and then resorted to backtracking behind denials and defensive arguments once the dust had settled.

That same loose tongue could cost him and his Thai Rak Thai Party dearly in the next general election (if it does take place on October 15). At the moment, not many people still believe that there will be an election, at least on that date.

Why should there be one if it is just going to enable Thaksin to claim legitimacy and a fresh mandate after rolling out the big-money politics and the party's huge war chest?

The general election is the only chance for Thaksin to bounce back. He is longing for victory so he can get down to the business of dealing with critics and opponents through litigation and other means.

Thaksin spent a few days in three northeastern provinces, meeting with villagers under the guise of a routine inspection trip. To those with sound minds, his pep talks for those poor souls and tirades against Bangkokians were election harangues and demagoguery with a pinch of pork-barrel tactics.

He must have chalked up a few more election points against the other contesting parties and at the expense of taxpayers, of course. Moving on from the Northeast, he intends to do the same in the North to ensure a comfortable victory. Meanwhile, he said nothing about the South, which might as well be another world.

Thaksin has not been to the South for months simply because he knows that southerners hate him, and that he can never win their hearts with mere soft sell and spin. Previous attempts to win with big money failed miserably amidst the laughs and jeers. He learned the lesson that southerners cannot be treated lightly or bought with money. Even so, it is a forgone conclusion that if a general election took place tomorrow, or any other day, Thaksin would surely win due to his strong grass-roots support. His critics and adversaries are just hoping that various judicial processes being worked out in a number of court proceedings can pin him down and finish him off for good.

Thaksin is fully aware that his star is not as bright as before. Past misdeeds in government are gradually re-emerging, while the advantages that come with control of government are being diminished by the judicial process.

The country awaits the Senate's selection of the new Election Commission. The candidates include men and a woman who are respectable figures from the bench, and some from outside. The Supreme Court judges were tough in screening the candidates amidst talk of attempted lobbying by formerly powerful figures from within judicial circles.

The candidates, considered to be the best available according to the Supreme Court's spokesperson, might still not measure up to the demands of those who are wary of Thaksin's sphere of influence and charm, not to mention his awesome financial power.

Present circumstances demand EC members with unquestionable integrity, competence and proven track records of sound judgement. It is not their prime responsibility to be neutral in the battle between good and evil. They must have the courage to take a stand in the name of the public good.

It remains to be seen whether the Senate - many of the members of which have been regarded as sympathetic to Thaksin - will pick the best and the most impeccably qualified candidates to serve. Or whether they will choose who will cause the least harm to their patron.

The prime duty of the EC is to organise elections and ensure fair play and results. The newcomers will still have limited time to shake up the arrangements made by their predecessors, who are standing trial for wrongdoing or for not being fair in their work.

The election is still a long way off. And it's not even sure that it will take place as planned. The current atmosphere is eerie and unpredictable. Thaksin himself floated a trial balloon when he said he may or may not run as No-1 on the party list.

His voluntary absence or retirement from politics would be too good to be true after all he has done and considering the extent of the damage done to the country's political and economic structure and its social values.

Anything is possible in our gutter politics. If Thaksin decides to quit, just in case, it is still impossible to presume he is doing so for the best for the country. It is just as likely that it would have been forced upon him, that he would have had to accept it for his own survival, lying low and waiting for the next right moment to rise and haunt the country again.

Sopon Onkgara