Bilateral ties have been sliding fast since their diplomatic normalisation in 1972. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted World War II war criminals are honoured along with Japanese war dead, may have served to deteriorate the country's relationship with China. But the real cause, as we all suspect, lies in the Sino-Japanese competition for leadership in the wider Asian region.

Putting aside historical baggage and the bewildering factors contributing to the souring of their relations, one can see that an attempt to defrost the icy relationship has been actively promoted at the non-governmental level. Last week, Japan hosted the second Beijing-Tokyo Forum—a second-track diplomacy venue where influential figures in the political arena, the media, and in business and culture came together to find solutions for the improvement of Sino-Japanese ties.

The annual event, jointly organised by China Daily, Peking University and Japanese think-tank Genron NPO, moved to Tokyo this year after its first meeting in China in 2005. With the theme "Building a New Relationship Oriented to Asia", the forum is open to ideas and proposals on removing the obstacles in bilateral relations.

Over the past years, the China-Japan relationship has become increasingly significant to peace and prosperity in Asia. Asia has much to grapple with, ranging from the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan issue to record oil prices, rising debt levels, surging interest rates, poverty and the risk of bird flu. It is therefore unfortunate that Chinese and Japanese leaders are unable to sit in a room together to chew things over.

Statistically, in 1980, 78 per cent of Japanese people had a positive attitude toward China, but this percentage had dropped to only 32 per cent some 25 years later. In China, only 15 per cent of the population now feel positively toward Japan. The shocking figures represent an urgent need for the two countries to come to terms with their enmity in order to pursue peaceful development.

While much resentment is mutually felt between Chinese and Japanese leaders, the Beijing-Tokyo Forum has emerged as a symbol of the common aspirations among the two countries' peoples. About 90 officials and scholars from China and Japan who participated in the event agreed that direct exchanges at the public level are essential and will serve as a foundation to rebuild trust.

They were cautioned of the possibility that frosty political ties might hamper the two countries' vibrant economic activities. One of the main recommendations was to take advantage of the cultural dimension in pushing bilateral relations forward. Indeed, cultural contact between the two peoples has long been an important element of Sino-Japanese relations. For example, more and more Chinese students are studying Japanese as their first foreign language. The forum thus suggested that "public diplomacy" be developed as a new way to invigorate bilateral ties. This public diplomacy refers to contacts between the two countries "beyond diplomatic channels", such as exchanges between non-governmental organisations.

Chen Haosu, president of the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, stated: "As the current misbalance of political and economic ties is so abnormal, consultations on an equal footing are needed to help solve problems."

Exchange visits at the private level are considered to be a useful mechanism in bringing down the wall of misunderstanding. Regrettably, a recent survey showed that only 13 per cent of Japanese respondents had been to China, while 1.2 per cent of the Chinese surveyed had visited Japan. Of all respondents, about 43 per cent of the Japanese chose not to visit China because of the poor relationship, and 60 per cent of Chinese had no intention of travelling to Japan.

In its first move, the Japanese government has decided to invite 1,200 Chinese high school students to Japan this year to stay with local host families in order to have the best possible experience of the country. Tokyo hopes that youth exchanges will help promote long-term friendship with China. Despite this public diplomacy, many still doubt whether Chinese and Japanese leaders are serious about mending their ties. Political obstacles and emotional stiffness remain powerful factors that could potentially overshadow efforts at the people's level.

News of Koizumi's upcoming visit to the Yasukuni Shrine on the sensitive anniversary of Japan's World War II surrender on August 15, and the revelation of the secret visit to the controversial war shrine by Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, the favourite candidate to become the next prime minister, only add complications to the current political stalemate.

More worryingly, this political tension is now being felt throughout the region. The battlefield is no longer limited to Northeast Asia. Tension has led to intense competition between China and Japan, as reflected in their "business war" in Southeast Asia, the fight for energy in the South China Sea and beyond, and the assertion of soft power to win allies, particularly among their Asean friends.

Thailand's decision to promote the Chinese language in its high schools has made Japan rather uncomfortable. Suddenly, Chinese teachers have arrived in Thailand in large numbers. Similarly, Sino-Burmese energy cooperation has in some ways compelled Tokyo to forge ties with other Asean fellows, most notably with Singapore, in the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

These examples are sufficient to attest that the scope of Sino-Japanese rivalry goes far beyond its bilateral context, and that the work of second-track diplomacy will have to be even more strenuous, given the cooling of relations at the state level.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun

The Nation

Singapore

Dr Pavin Chachavalpongpun is an independent writer based in Singapore.