You might ask yourself whether Banharn had some hidden agenda when he made this otherwise laudable remark, but let's give him the benefit of the doubt.

Indeed, Thailand is badly in need of national reconciliation and political reform. Unfortunately, neither of these processes are likely to happen so long as Thaksin is still in control. During his six years in power, the caretaker prime minister has presided over the opening of a bitter political divide the likes of which have not been seen in modern Thai history. Money politics has destroyed the democratic principle of checks and balances.

Even most members of Thai Rak Thai seem to believe that sooner or later Thaksin will have to announce that he has dropped all plans to contend for the premiership.

A political confrontation, which would most probably collapse into bloody violence, could ensue if Thaksin insisted on fighting to retain power. The caretaker prime minister perfectly understands his situation. He stands no chance of making a comeback. So what's the point of his staying on to rock the boat?

Thaksin's problem is that he can't find anyone who would be willing to underwrite his wellbeing and his Bt73-billion worth of assets after he stepped down. He really wants to call it quits. But who is going to guarantee the he and his family will be safe?

Thailand's dictators of old had no problem living a quiet life after finding themselves out of power. Some cases in point are the leaders from the Thanom-Prapas or Suchinda regimes. After some bloody violence, they agreed to step down for the sake of political reform and the national interest. The military or one of the more charismatic persons of the day underwrote their safety. The dictators' assets went untouched.

This is the peculiar Thai style of political compromise, a style that is rarely found in other countries.

Thaksin's may be the first case in which nobody dares to underwrite a former leader's wellbeing after he steps down. The caretaker prime minister can only blame himself. He has painted himself into the corner.

If he loses power he risks having his assets seized by the new government. The wealth of the other Shinawatra, Damapong and Wongsawat clans could also be in danger.

The Shinawatras will not be able to move the Bt73 billion that they picked up from the sale of Shin Corp to Temasek of Singapore out of the country. Any huge withdrawals, say to the tune of Bt1 billion, will immediately draw the attention of the banking authorities. So now they have all the money, but they can't touch any of it.

The Shinawatras could have some assets overseas, but their value cannot compare with the value of the proceeds from the sale of Shin Corp. If the Bt73 billion were to be seized, the Shinawatras would have virtually nothing left.

There is also a rumour swirling around that about half of the Bt73 billion is parked in an escrow account as part of a deal with Temasek. This means that the Shinawatras/Damapongs are not allowed to withdraw any money from the account until they have met some important conditions in the Shin Corp deal.

Incidentally, this caretaker government has paid an unusual amount of attention to the resolution of the business conflict between iTV, which is part of Shin Corp, and the Office of the Prime Minister. iTV was recently ordered to turn over Bt76 billion to the state for an alleged breach of contract.

Also incidentally, Burma has been receiving special treatment from the caretaker government. Shin Satellite, which is also part of Shin Corp, maintains an earth station on a mountaintop in Burma that can relay satellite signals to Australia. This earth station has to be appropriately taken care of.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Ministry has completed its investigation into the legal status of Kularb Kaew Co, which is part of Cedar Holdings, a company set up by Temasek to take over Shin Corp. Yet, the ministry dares not make public its findings out of respect for the delicate political situation.

The Democrats have alleged that Kularb Kaew is a nominee of Singapore, making it an alien company. If this proves to be the case, the Shin Corp deal will be declared void because it violates the alien business law.

Thaksin is thinking hard about how to avoid this trap. He is campaigning hard in the Northeast, the Thai Rak Thai stronghold, ahead of the October 15 election.

His party could come away from the election with 300 seats, compared with 150 for the Democrats and 50 for Chat Thai and the rest. Sill, nobody is willing to bet that Thaksin will make a comeback as prime minister.

If Thaksin is finally driven into a corner, you can expect violence. But there can't be peace without war. Only then can a political compromise be struck. Between now and October 15, anything could happen.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation