The ministry's Business Development Department undertook earlier to announce the investigation result before Mother's Day, which is tomorrow - and tomorrow, being a Saturday, leaves only today, if it really means to announce the result at all.

Ever since Temasek took over Shin Corp in January, public interest in the Thai telecom holding company that was founded by Thaksin Shinawatra has never faded. Many people believe that the deal has been done; the Shinawatra and Damapong families have netted their Bt73 billion from the share sale and other investors have reaped a further Bt70 billion.

But given the department has repeatedly delayed announcing its result, there is now the suspicion the deal could, after all, be overturned.

That would hit iTV hard, because it is 53-per-cent owned by Shin Corp. Already, iTV faces the need to pay a higher-than-expected concession fee. They say lightning never strikes the same place twice, but iTV also suffered from a poor performance in the second quarter of this year.

Its net profit in the quarter was Bt172.39 million, down 29.3 per cent from Bt243.67 million a year earlier. iTV said political uncertainty, oil prices and higher interest rates pushed revenue down while sales and administrative costs and interest expenses rose 4.8 per cent year on year.

Why, then, if the quarter was so bad for iTV, did two other television broadcasters - MCOT and BEC World - perform better than the year before?

MCOT's net profit was Bt394 million, 34 per cent up on a year earlier, while BEC World reaped Bt465 million, up 103 per cent year on year.

Weren't they affected by higher oil prices and interest rates?

Certainly, MCOT benefited from its partially privatised state enterprise status. It gained higher revenue from ads for government projects, including the education loan programme and the Culture Ministry's Feeling Thai campaign. But the situation also improved at privately owned BEC World.

Nobody knows how iTV will perform in the third quarter. But we do know that if the Commerce Ministry rules that Kularb Kaew is a nominee of Temasek, this will be more than a simple lightning strike to iTV.

If Kularb Kaew is a nominee, Cedar Holdings, which owns more than a half of Shin's shares, will be regarded as a foreign company. Similarly, Shin will be regarded as a foreign company and, as such, will be barred from operating a TV station here.

Given the huge ramifications its investigation result could have, there is little wonder that the ministry will once again back away from a public announcement today.

achara_d@nationgroup.com