Thaksin is resuming the tradition he established of holding occasional Cabinet meetings in the provinces, during which he doles out pork barrels with great effect as far as winning the hearts and minds of local officials and villagers is concerned. It has always been an effective public relations tool, and today it's Khon Kaen's turn - the PM and his entourage can expect to be received with pomp and pageantry there.

Tomorrow, he will be back in Roi Et's At Samat district, the site of his much-publicised "reality show" on how to eradicate poverty in January of this year. Villagers in areas where Thaksin is scheduled to visit are eagerly awaiting the free land title deeds and cattle that they have been promised.

These visits have all the marks of Thaksin's brand of populism, which has made him the darling of rural people across the country. And though the Thai Rak Thai Party is not expected to repeat its performance in the February 2005 election in which it won 377 seats, with the power of the state and his own wealth behind him, Thaksin has the potential to win big again in the October poll. Thaksin's current tour of the Northeast is designed to make sure that things turn out that way.

Charges of corruption, abuse of power and conflicts of interest do not resonate with these rural constituents, whose only concern is how to live a better life. For them, Thaksin is a saviour who answers their prayers. Call them handouts or freebies - as long as they answer to their needs, they don't care.

The fact that tens of thousands of villagers could be mobilised on short notice into Bangkok to defend the beleaguered prime minister at the height of the political crisis earlier this year says a lot about the influence Thaksin wields over his rural supporters. In short, there are reserves ready to be marshalled to support the leader's political agenda.

Emboldened by the Thai Rak Thai masses, some of the party's key members have even warned of a possible "bloodbath" in the event that the political machine is dismantled if its executives are found guilty of bankrolling small parties to run in the aborted April 2 election.

Set against this background was the launch of a civil network in Bangkok on Sunday in an escalating campaign to oust Thaksin. Calling itself the "Civil Society Network to Stop the Thaksin System", the alliance has a clear-cut goal. It wants Thaksin out of the Thai political system and to help restore political ethics and morality, which many believe has been absent ever since the businessman-turned-politician rose to power five years ago.

Though the network is by no means an extension of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the two groups share similar goals, which undeniably reflect the mood and aspirations of middle-class Thais in Bangkok and other major cities. These are the people who were instrumental in creating the "vote no" phenomenon that eventually forced Thaksin to take a temporary political break in the aftermath of the snap election which was subsequently ruled null and void by the Constitution Court.

And they are the same people who deplore the broken Thai political system under Thaksin's autocratic style of leadership and who applaud the jail verdict by the Criminal Court against the three election commissioners. They are as eager to assert themselves to get Thaksin out as his supporters are in propping him up.

A scary possibility is that Thaksin will be so obsessed with preserving his hold on power that he will be tempted to set the stage for people on these two extremes to clash, hoping that his supporters will prevail through sheer numbers. His party's propaganda machine has been working overtime in rural areas to whip up the pro-Thaksin frenzy that it hopes will either return Thaksin to office through the ballot box or protect him from any possible "political incident" - like having his party dissolved or himself disqualified from running in elections.

Thaksin is apparently gambling on a convincing poll victory to take off the pressure on him to call it a day. The massive build up of his rural forces is being seen as his ultimate weapon to deal with his urban opponents.

Meanwhile, Thaksin is basking in the warm and enthusiastic reception he is receiving from his northeastern fans and spending taxpayers' money on those populist projects to make sure that he has an upper hand when the crunch comes.

What we are witnessing is just the beginning of another drawn out political battle that has the potential to slide toward an ugly end. And Thaksin is probably the only person who can stop it or quicken it.

 Thepchai Yong