"We are not concerned at all about winning or losing in the election because we'll definitely win. But the problem is, after winning the election, how can we form the government?" said a Thai Rak Thai member from the Northeast.

In spite of its dwindling popularity, Thai Rak Thai still looks invincible at the polls. One of the party's key members said if the election were held tomorrow, the party would win about 300 out of 500 seats in Parliament.

Before the House dissolution in February, Thai Rak Thai controlled 376 seats, making it practically impossible for the opposition to grill the prime minister.

The only factor deciding the future of Thai Rak Thai lies, of course, in Thaksin Shinawatra, the caretaker prime minister.

Thaksin has not yet made his position clear as to whether he would take a break from the premiership. If he decides to take a break, it would relieve the pressure on Thai Rak Thai and ease the political tension which has been intensifying since his family sold Shin Corp tax-free to Temasek Holdings in January.

The Thai elite, the middle-class and intellectuals have been calling for Thaksin to leave the political scene because they perceive that he lacks the moral authority to continue to lead the country.

There are two camps within the party which view the political situation differently. One camp would like Thaksin to declare outright his decision to take a break from politics. Members in this camp believe if Thaksin were to make his announcement now, it would have positive consequences for the party and improve the political atmosphere as a whole.

Even though the party might face a downsizing as a result of Thaksin taking leave, it can focus on rallying behind a new leadership and build for the future.

There would be no more street demonstrations against Thaksin. After the election, the party would certainly have enough clout to form a new government.

"We believe that if Thaksin were to announce his decision to take a break from politics, some of the no-votes cast against Thai Rak Thai last time would return to support us again," said one party-list member.

The other camp, which consists mostly of non-party list MPs, believes that it is not necessary for Thaksin to prematurely announce his political future.

This camp believes that were Thaksin to make known his position now, the party would fall apart like the proverbial house of cards.

First, factions within the party would vie against each other to promote one of their own people as the new prime minister.

Second, a number of MPs would lose their seats in the election because they would not have Thaksin as a presenter. Thaksin's popularity among the rural voters is still high.

Third, money might not flow into the party like before.

The MPs in this camp hold the belief that Thaksin should continue his political campaign through to the election, after which he can decide his future.

If the party only manages a narrow majority win in the election, which makes it impossible to form a one-party government, Thaksin would be certain to announce his break from politics.

The choice for the party then would be to either come up with a new candidate to take over the premiership by forming a coalition government with another party, most likely the Chat Thai Party of Banharn Silapa-archa. Or the party may invite Banharn to take over the premiership while Thai Rak Thai plays a back-seat role in the next government, which would stay on for about one year to focus most of its energy on national reconciliation and political reform.

But if the party were to win big again in the election, Thaksin would not find it necessary to take a break because he could claim that he has received a mandate from the people again.

Besides, the election would be organised by a new panel of commissioners, who are more acceptable to the public than the previous ones.

However, it is no secret that most Thai Rak Thai members believe that Thaksin will announce his break from politics after the election in order to ease the political pressure.

This would allow him step down more elegantly than making his position known now, which would amount to accepting a defeat.

And accepting defeat is just not Thaksin's style.

Somroutai Sapsomboon,

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation