The Election Commission was known to have been too close to the Thai Rak Thai Party for comfort. As an independent body, it was supposed to maintain strict neutrality in organising the April 2 vote, but instead it did everything it could to help the Thai Rak Thai win the flawed election. Since the Criminal Court's verdict did not go the way the Thai Rak Thai would have liked, Thaksin complained: "We do not have any connections."

With this remark, Thaksin tacitly acknowledged the fact that his regime's attempt to hold influence over the judicial branch was effectively curbed.

Thaksin lost his first battle when the Constitution Court nullified the April 2 election. If the results of that election were deemed legitimate, the Thai Rak Thai would have enjoyed a sweeping victory. The verdict against the EC was another blow to Thaksin and the second battle he has lost.

But the war is far from over yet.

Both landmark cases, ruled on by the Constitution Court and the Criminal Court, mark the start of what is known as a judicial review, a process whereby political gridlock is resolved through judicial decisions. Earlier the Supreme Administrative Court dealt the Thaksin regime a setback by nullifying the privatisation of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand. It was the first landmark case to undermine the Thaksin regime.

His Majesty the King called for a judicial review on April 25 by advising the judges of the Supreme Administrative Court, the Supreme Court and the Constitution Court to help resolve the political deadlock. The April election was so flawed that legitimising its outcome would be tantamount to holding Thai democracy up for ridicule. The Constitution Court went on to nullify the election results, and the Criminal Court followed up by kicking out the election commissioners responsible for organising the flawed electoral process.

Sensing that he was being forced into a corner, Thaksin launched a counterattack by claiming that a person with reserved power beyond the Constitution was trying to overthrow his government. Most people believed that Thaksin could have had Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda in mind when he made that statement. Prem has been rallying the Royal armed forces, encouraging them to close ranks behind the monarchy, ever since.

The Thaksin regime has become so entrenched in Thai institutions over the past five years that his power has been nearly unchecked. Thaksin's remark about the person with reserved power beyond the Constitution has gone almost unchallenged. It amounted to a declaration of war against the Thai elite.

Apart from the People's Alliance for the Democracy, only a group of high-society ladies and descendants of the Chakri Dynasty came out to demand a clarification from Thaksin. Then their voices faded into thin air. Prem's rally of the Royal armed forces carried only a symbolic message. General Saphrang Kalayanamit of the Third Army division in Phitsanulok has been most vocal in declaring war against those who harbour ill intentions towards the monarchy.  Strangely enough, the rest of Thai society has remained silent over this deep-running conflict between the Thaksin regime and the Thai elite. In the meantime, Thaksin has went on to tell US President George W Bush that his political opponents were relying on "extra-constitutional tactics" to undermine Thai democracy, which, he claimed, he championed.

On Monday, Thaksin tried to rock the boat again. This time, addressing members of the Thai-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, Thaksin said: "Today the credibility of the systems, from the rule of law to the justice process, has been questioned. Once our justice process is absent of credibility, it would be dangerous to our country. It might deplete foreign investment flowing into the country."

Thaksin was directing his comments at the judicial review against his regime. This prompted Charan Phakdithanakul, the secretary-general of the Supreme Court, to issue a rebuttal. Charan said: "So far there have been attempts to interfere in the justice process from those who have state power and money. Sometimes they rely on unlawful tactics to issue the threats. For instance, a mob was organised to apply pressure on the justice process." Indeed, Thaksin's interpretation of the justice system is rather self-serving. The justice system does not only cover the legal domain and the workings of the Administrative Court, the Supreme Court and the Constitution Court, but it also encompasses the legislative branch and other state agencies and independent institutions, most of which have been swayed by the influence of the Thaksin regime. For instance, Thaksin does not mention anything about the Royal Thai Police Force, or the Department of Special Investigation under his control. The functions of these agencies also represent an equally important part of the justice process.

Looking ahead, the judicial review - a process which social critic Thirayuth Boonmi has emerged to champion - will determine the course of Thai politics. There is the International Broadcasting Corp case against Thaksin pending in the Criminal Court in October, as well as a lawsuit calling on the Constitution Court to dissolve the Thai Rak Thai, the Democrat Party and three other small parties for allegedly violating election laws.

In the end, the outcome of the power struggle will be determined by judicial review, which is now proceeding in earnest in the run-up to the October 15 election. Thaksin is in full defensive mode, but he can be quite dangerous when striking back if driven into a corner.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation