The annual list of military changes and appointments is expected to be vetted by the Defence Ministry this week - amid reports it contains a few surprises due to intense horse trading among the top brass.

Although only two top positions will be vacated due to retirements, this year's reshuffle has generated much publicity because many top officers seen as government allies could be up for choice assignments.

The armed forces is at a crossroads, and some commentators say it's time to choose to uphold professionalism or be swayed by political winds.

In the reshuffle draft, General Sirichai Thanyasiri, permanent secretary for Defence, who will retire in September, has proposed his deputy Admiral Bannawit Kengrian for his position.

But caretaker Defence Minister Thamarak Isarangura may overrule Sirichai and pick General Lertrat Ratanavanich for the job.

Lertrat is presently joint chief of staff and moving him from the Supreme Command Headquarters to the Defence Ministry would increase leeway to promote senior officers in the armed forces.

Lertrat is known to have connections in the ruling party, and is expected to fit right into Thamarak's team.

His promotion looks almost certain unless caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra decides to change the rotations at the last minute.

The possibility of Thaksin intervening is remote, but it cannot be ruled out. The government may opt for General Winai Phattiyakul, secretary-general of the National Security Council, to replace Sirichai.

Under this scenario, Lertrat would take the top job at the Supreme Command.

Deputy Supreme Commander General Boonsarng Niampradit is slated to replace his boss, General Ruengroj Mahasaranont, on the latter's retirement. As an alternative, he would replace Winai.

The Army is at the centre of the competition for key assignments. Commander-in-chief, General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, will retire next year and his subordinates have already started the race to succeed him.

Key contenders to replace Sonthi are Pre-Cadet Class 10 graduates, seen as Thaksin's allies.

But a key issue is how to prevent professional soldiers from becoming political cronies.

In the past few months, speculation has been rife that Sonthi might be "kicked upstairs" to await retirement and pave the way for the promotion of his assistant, General Pornchai Kranlert.

Pornchai was a classmate of Thaksin at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.

Two weeks ago, Sonthi ordered a massive transfer of 129 battalion-level commanders. This broke the commanding position Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers held in Bangkok.

Talks about Pornchai have also taken a turn. Military observers view him as lacking the seniority to fill Sonthi's position.

After the Pre-Cadet Class 10 lined up to wish Thaksin a happy birthday last Thursday, rumours leaked out that Sonthi is poised to recommend the promotion of Lt-General Anupong Paochinda.

Anupong, a classmate of Pornchai and commander of the First Army Area, has emerged as a contender for the top Army job next year.

If Sonthi has his way, Anupong will fill the position of Army chief of staff. The Pornchai-Anupong rivalry is expected to reduce the bargaining position of the Pre-Cadet Class 10.

A lot hinges on whether Thaksin manages to retain power until the next round of military reshuffles, as either Pornchai or Anupong could get the top after Sonthi. But if Thaksin's political fortunes turn sour, the two may be booted out of the Army altogether.

While the Pre-Cadet Class 10 graduates are pushing to fill senior Army positions, they will have to vacate division-level assignments - and lose control of combat units.

In the upcoming reshuffle, Maj-General Prin Suwanathat is tipped to relinquish command of the First Infantry Division in exchange for promotion.

Another Thaksin ally, Lt-General Jirasit Kesakomol, is expected to take over the First Army Area, which oversees the division. But Prin's promotion to a ceremonial post would deal a blow to the Pre-Cadet Class 10.

The blow will be felt harder if Thaksin's allies fail to get one of "their men" as the new commander of the Third Army Area.

Outgoing commander Lt-General Saprang Kalayanamitr has made it clear that he would block the nomination of any successor chosen from Pre-Cadet Class 10.

Saprang has stuck his neck out in a bid to distance the armed forces from politics - and collided head on with the government. He has pushed openly for military professionalism, which many see as an attack against the prime minister.

It will be interesting to watch how Sonthi resolves the power play between supporters and opponents of the Pre-Cadet Class 10.

Thaksin's allies are due for promotion. Denying them rewards might be unjustified. But placing them in key positions risks greater military involvement in politics.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation