Unveiling the company's research, "The End of Television As We Know It", Dominic Stone, broadcast solutions executive of IBM Asia Pacific, told a press conference in Bangkok yesterday that it predicts the television industry will witness an upheaval no less dramatic than that experienced by the music industry. "During the next few years, changes will be gradual and manageable, then there will be a tipping point, which make changes happen in a dramatic way," he said. "So now is a good time to prepare."

In the US alone, IBM estimates a loss of revenue for television-network companies of more than US$18 billion (Bt682 billion) by 2009 due to the growth of IPTV (Internet protocol television) and personal video recorders (PVRs), which help audiences skip ads.

Two key drivers in this evolution are the openness of access channels and consumer involvement with the media. Technical and fashion-savvy audiences, represented by viewers of two young-at-heart programmes, Gadgeters and Kool Kids, are expected to drive dramatic changes in business models in their search for any time, any place content across the platform.

"Television as we know it will be transformed with clear winners and losers as we expect central programming and scheduling to become largely irrelevant to certain viewers who will opt to create their own content," Stone said.

Providers of television content, packaging, programming and distribution must act quickly to develop and implement strategies that will not only serve these fragmented audiences but also achieve significant cost savings in order to fund new channels, such as via mobile devices, the Internet or on-demand television and IPTV.

The IBM report predicts a bright future for content owners, niche content aggregators, "always-on" content producers, and retailers (such as services and installation firms). Only moderate prospects are expected for traditional content packagers and programmers.

Content owners will remain in a very strong position, provided they do not restrict themselves to narrow channels of distribution. They could either go directly to consumers or engage in a "flexible rights agreement" with network operators, Stone said.

Pichaya Changsorn

The Nation