The spectre of Black October is looming and the worst may be yet to come.

In October, the Criminal Court is scheduled to complete a hearing and deliver a verdict on a case that may turn out to be his Achilles heel. An American has filed a counter-suit against Thaksin and his wife, Pojamarn, in a business dispute involving cable broadcaster IBC.

In 1995, Thaksin brought a civil claim against his former IBC partner, William L Monson. It alleged financial fraud and breach of contract. Both the court of first instance and an appeal ruled in favour of Monson, prompting him to lodge a counter-claim against Thaksin, Pojamarn and others for alleged perjury.

The verdict will come one day after the general election and it will be anyone's guess. But if the recent Criminal Court ruling against the election commissioners is any clue, Thaksin should be feeling a shiver down his spine.

Going into the October election, a new Election Commission is expected to organise an honest poll. Massive vote buying and other illegal tactics will be deterred.

Three members of the last commission have been convicted for mishandling the April 2 poll. They will not be around to favour Thai Rak Thai again, as noted in the Criminal Court verdict. Thai Rak Thai candidates will have to exercise extreme caution, or risk disqualification.

How large a margin of victory can Thai Rak Thai expect in this election? A landslide is unlikely.

The Constitution Court may also dissolve Thai Rak Thai for earlier alleged breaches of election laws. The Democrat Party and three other smaller parties may also suffer the same fate.

Again, if one reads closely the Criminal Court verdict against the former election commissioners, one encounters numerous references to how the EC assisted Thai Rak Thai to win the April 2 election.

If the EC three were found guilty of violating election laws, how about a Criminal Court verdict going against the party concerned? If the Constitution Court were to deliver its decision before the October 15 election, all Thai Rak Thai candidates would be excluded en masse. They would not have time to join other parties.

If the Constitution Court verdict comes after the election, Thai Rak Thai MPs could move to other parties. It could be a fiasco.

Since his dissolution of Parliament in February, Thaksin has been serving as caretaker prime minister for more than the maximum 135 days allowed by the Constitution. A challenge to his caretaker role could be filed with either the Administrative or Constitution courts. It is not clear who'd be prepared to do this.

He  has lost significant political ground since the beginning of this year. The April 2 snap election, allegedly designed to whitewash his tax-free sale of Shin Corp to Singapore, was taken away from him.

He has incurred the wrath of Thai aristocrats and the elite by challenging "a person with reserved power beyond the Constitution" to come out from the shadows and face him. This established a point of no return.

General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council, has been paying visits to the armed forces, urging them to remain loyal to the monarchy. The armed forces are polarised. But key military supporters of Thaksin are subdued.

Thaksin's allies in his own Thai Rak Thai are planning to desert because they don't want to offend the establishment.

Thaksin's trump card - in the event of a showdown or being pressed into a corner - is to rally one million supporters for his cause. Then, a power play will decide the course of history.

But Thaksin's key military supporters are being restrained by recent reshuffles of middle-ranking officials and the next reshuffle of senior officials in October.

Only money can hold Thaksin's empire together now. But for how long? Black October could be the final chapter.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation