The case becomes clearer when examined through hindsight. First was the swift and sweeping military reshuffle that purged middle-ranking officers suspected of being too close to Thaksin out of crucial command positions in the capital. Then yesterday's court verdict followed the fixing of an election date through a Royal Decree. A coincidence perhaps, but setting October 15 as the date for the national election made it impossible to fill the vacant Election Commission through conventional parliamentary means, which are prone to delaying tactics and the threat of pro-Thaksin figures making their way back in.

Thaksin's supporters can easily decry the commissioners' demise as part of a campaign against him. That is just half the truth. No matter how much his opponents want to see him leave for good, the real agenda is to rehabilitate a political system that is corrupted and distorted. In other words, a badly divided Thailand is now in need of a system where a man like Thaksin is judged in a fair and transparent manner. That is why he is being urged, persuaded and warned to stay away from the next election. The return of Thaksin into power through the same old flawed system would send this current gigantic mess back at square one.

Despite constitutional safeguards, he had sneaked into the corridors of political power, through the landslide of votes his party got, and used as a shield against its critics. The country's troubles started there and with Thaksin running in the next election it plunged everyone into a disastrous vicious circle.

What would the PM do if he managed to stage a comeback while the system remains weak? Even when his popularity was at its dizzying heights, he tried to control the media, meddled with the Armed Forces and dangerously steered politics back to the men in uniform, and made sure our checks and balances were anything but. When he was powerful, he did whatever was necessary to boost his domination, and this tells us that he would stop at nothing when his political survival is at stake.

Expect much more of the same if he comes back after the next poll. Nobody wants to see the military being politicised but Thaksin has had his beliefs reinforced that to be politically strong, he needs the support of everyone from foot soldiers to the top brass. He has also realised his mistake in not paying enough attention to the judiciary, despite having a close relative controlling administrative affairs at the Justice Ministry. As for media freedom and checks and balances, we can easily predict what is in store, given various colossal unsettled issues like the Shin Corp-Temasek deal and the CTX corruption scandal at the new airport.

The four-year jail terms imposed on the three election commissioners is arguably harsh, but it's the result of things having been allowed to go this far. Rules were twisted and bent to get Thaksin off the hook in 2001, and that was the beginning of matters worsening down a slippery slope. Thaksin can complain as much as he likes, yet he must also ponder this question: If all the rules had been strictly observed, would he have been here in the first place?

More surgery is needed on the National Counter Corruption Commission and even the Constitution.

Thaksin needs to stand on the sidelines now and let political reforms to take place. Once the rules are strengthened and everyone agrees to respect them, he could try to make a comeback.

If he survives, with all things fair and square, then he can proudly move on. But if he is a disease, then we can only hope a new immune system will actively respond.

 Tulsathit Taptim