"We don't know how long the talks will be suspended. It may be long enough for some members to change their targets from multilateral to bilateral," he said.

The lack of progress towards trade liberalisation under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) does not bode well for the Thai agricultural sector, especially the sugar and sugarcane industry, because it means no further reductions in farm subsidies in developed countries, Karun said.

WTO members earlier this week failed to strike a deal to conclude the Doha Round after six key players - the US, European Union, Brazil, Japan, India and Australia - could not agree on how to reduce protections for their politically sensitive farm sectors.

The WTO still has a major role to play in governing the world trading system, especially in solving trade disputes and managing fair trade regulations, he said. But the WTO's rules might change in the future if many countries favour bilateral trade deals.

"The WTO may be an organisation that consolidates various bilateral trade pacts and uses those pacts under the umbrella of the most favoured nation [status]," he said.

On Monday, the world-trade talks collapsed in acrimony, leaving the future of the world trading system in question.

The EU blamed the US for refusing to make deeper cuts in farm supports, while the US said it was not willing to roll back its agricultural subsidies to pre-depression levels without better market access in Europe and in "advanced developing countries" like China, India and Brazil.

Trade ministers have no idea when the talks will resume but believe it won't happen this year. WTO chief Pascal Lamy suspended the Doha round, already two years behind schedule, indefinitely and said a year-end target for a global market-opening deal was now out of reach.

WTO members may have to wait and see how key members' react, while Thailand and many developing countries will try to move the Doha Round talks forward, despite the long-term suspension, Karun said.

The members were trying to wrap up a deal before the end of the year to give US President George Bush enough time to push it through the US Congress.

Karun said that with the collapse of the talks, the US Congress was likely to extend the president's fast-track authority to negotiate international trade pacts for another year.

The fast-track authority is scheduled to end a year from now.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

 The Nation