The Criminal Court will today hand down its verdict against the three recalcitrant members of the Election Commission (EC) accused of malfeasance for their alleged unlawful handling of the April 2 election.

If the court were to hand down guilty verdicts against Vasana Puemlarp, Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien - and send them to jail, even for a single night - the election commissioners would automatically lose their status, as pointed out by Meechai Ruchuphan, the former Senate president. This would pave the way for the Supreme Court and the Senate to pick five new candidates to fill the EC.

A new EC would deprive the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) of "home-field advantage" going into the October election.

If the court's verdict is soft on the three election commissioners and allows them to get off the hook, then everything would be back to square one. The election commissioners, chaired by Vasana, could have the go-ahead to organise the election in exactly the same way they did in April.

But let us all heed the advice of His Majesty the King. Last Friday, His Majesty endorsed the royal decree setting the general election date. But the King also attached a letter - which was unprecedented - saying he would like to see peace and

stability restored to Thailand as quickly as possible.

He also asked for a clean and fair election.

It is no secret that the King disapproved of the April 2 election, in which TRT ran only against small nominee parties. This was undemocratic. The King has instructed the Supreme Court, the Supreme Administrative Court and the Constitution Court to resolve the political mess through judicial means. The Constitution Court moved quickly to nullify the April 2 election.

Now it is the turn of the Criminal Court, which will decide in the case against the election commissioners, who are widely seen as being too close to TRT for comfort.

The King has stressed that he would like to see a clean election. If this is the case, then the election commissioners, who have resisted all pressure to step down, have to be forced, through legal means, to take responsibility for their mishandling of the April election.

In politics, timing is everything. The royal decree for the October 15 election could not have come at a better moment. First, it sets a definite timeframe for the election. Second, it neutralises any attempt at a military coup. Third, it restores political stability - for, eventually, the country needs an election. Fourth, it forces a resolution to the political quagmire through the judicial channel, which is part of the democratic process.

"Were the royal decree to be issued after the Criminal Court's verdict on the EC, the political turmoil could be plunged into an open-ended situation. Thaksin and his cohorts could come up with different tactics to delay the nomination process of the new election commissioners, which would have made it almost impossible to fix the new election," said a keen observer of Thai politics.

"Then, the pressure would be on the shoulders of the Thai elite, who are up in arms against Thaksin."

Although Thaksin desperately needs the election, to extend the lease of his political life, he can still afford delaying tactics and play an active role as caretaker prime minister - indefinitely if necessary. The damage to the country would be irreparable then. But his critics among the Thai elite have to pay more attention to the stability of Thailand as a whole and cannot afford to let the country slip into a bottomless pit of turmoil.

Since Thaksin wants the election, he can test his own medicine with the royal decree. The name of the game now is judicial power to restore equilibrium to the absurd political stalemate. Another example is that the Constitution Court has yet to rule on whether TRT, the Democrat Party and three other small parties violated the election law in April. Any of the parties on this list could be dissolved if found guilty.

Between now and October 15, there could be other unpredictable forces at play. In chess, it is sometimes necessary to prolong the game - to test the nerve of one's opponent - and sacrifice a bishop or a knight along the way to arrive at the checkmate position.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation