HARD TALK
Some plausible defences for Thaksin's spin-doctors

Just a few months ago, caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra dismissed them as "roadside hooligans".
But all of a sudden last week, they were elevated by the same person who had thrown mud at them to the status of people of "charisma" and of "extra-constitutional power" out to subvert Thailand's hard-won democracy. Of course, you have to be ready to fall for the Thai Rak Thai Party's overzealous spin-doctors if you want to believe they are one and the same. Their boss probably left them with no choice but to switch to damage control mode. But it was nevertheless a clumsy and laughable move. They were obviously as much at a loss as anybody else but still found it necessary to come to his rescue. After leaving the country in a spin with his remarks about a "charismatic person" intervening with the bureaucracy and democracy, Thaksin has stayed aloof and shuns all demands for him to identify that mysterious person. But despite his calculated silence and the farcical damage control operations by his public relations machine, his critics and most political observers as well as the media have already drawn their own conclusions. As someone occasionally linked - either rightly or wrongly - to some of the behind-the-scenes political developments, Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda may stand out as the intended target of Thaksin's criticism. But it's rather obvious that Thaksin's ire goes beyond the widely respected statesman. But, again, that shouldn't come as a surprise for those who are familiar with Thaksin's behaviour and political agenda. For them, the question is why the caretaker prime minister chose to make public his claims at this juncture and run the risk of a backlash. These are some of the plausible reasons why Thaksin said what he said and what its likely consequences would be. Obviously every one of them makes much more sense than what Thaksin's spin doctors had to offer:
Thaksin is simply stupid - so stupid that he has lost sense of what he is doing or saying. So the "charismatic person" reference was just a slip of the tongue that reflects his lack of political intelligence. He is digging his own grave without knowing it.
On the other extreme, Thaksin is exceptionally brilliant. He had it all calculated - from the moment he set the already volatile situation on fire with his controversial remarks to the ensuing commotion that is edging the country toward a potentially bloody confrontation.
The "charismatic person" quip was political bait. Thaksin's opponents, notably the People's Alliance for Democracy, would be lured into bringing the monarchy into the picture, which is exactly what they are doing. Turning the tables on them, Thaksin would have them crushed in one of their next street protests for besmirching the country's most revered institution. Tens of thousands of Thaksin supporters being mobilised from the North and Northeast would then swarm the streets of Bangkok to rally behind their "beloved leader". The massacre of student activists in October 1976, also triggered by a parody interpreted by rightwing militants as being lese majeste, stands as a reminder. Rumours that some pro-Thaksin elements in the Army were itching for a show of force were not groundless. And don't forget Thaksin's ultimate weapon - the power to declare a state of emergency that would accord him total extra-constitutional authority.
Thaksin was acting out of desperation. Rejected by all major institutions and facing the prospects of his Thai Rak Thai Party being dissolved, Thaksin finds himself cornered. It was a necessary "spasm" to demonstrate that he was down but not yet out, hoping it would help galvanise his badly demoralised Thai Rak Thai rank-and-file and rejuvenate the pro-Thaksin masses.
He was fooled by whoever advised him on the speech. Some smart advisers might have wanted their media-savvy boss to appear authoritative and in charge - put in a few bold phrases and Thaksin would rise above all.
Looking beyond his caretaker capacity, Thaksin wanted to re-establish his political leadership. By looking tough and uncompromising, Thaksin wanted to convey a message that he is here to stay - and he doesn't give a hoot who gets in his way. The next election, whenever it may be, is only a formality to return him to power. His message was primarily intended for bureaucrats whose loyalty obviously wavered because of the state of prolonged political uncertainty. He was apparently trying to arm-twist them into returning to the fold and behaving themselves in the next election.
Or Thaksin is really out to clash with whatever forces he believes are undermining his political command. Very few people believe his "charismatic person" reference was a slip-up. It was a well-calculated move by an overconfident leader to tell the world that his power is so well entrenched that it is beyond any challenge. Notice his emphasis on the phrase portraying himself as a "defender of democracy". Thaksin was reading from a prepared text - something unusual given his knack for extemporising. The reference was elaborate enough to leave no doubts as to whom he was alluding to as the "threat" to democracy. There are certainly not many people who are in a position to interfere with the bureaucracy as Thaksin alleged in his speech. And there are even fewer who can make the CEO-style prime minister feel threatened. As a tacit acknowledgement of the ramification of his remarks, Thaksin confided to Thai Rak Thai members last week that he was conscious of what he said and was "prepared to face the consequences". Thailand's top legal expert Meechai Ruchuphan tried to set the record straight with his own interpretation that Thaksin was making a veiled reference to His Majesty the King. The widely publicised interpretation touched off a round of intense debate that is adding to Thaksin's political woes. Well, Thaksin may never open his mouth and satisfy his critics by identifying that mysterious person of exceptional charisma. But that hardly makes a difference. If Thaksin cannot hide his best-kept secret from US President George W Bush, it would be presumptuous of him to believe he can fool his own countrymen.
Thepchai Yong
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