The letter to US President George Bush informing him that someone outside the constitutional framework was trying to prevent him from forming the government is a bit childish, coming from a leader such as him.

Thaksin sent the letter to Bush in April following his infamous pronouncement that he would like to take a break from the premiership. Truth be told, he sent similar letters to the heads of state of Asean at the same time. In return, Thaksin received a big congratulatory note from a former Asean leader for his triumph in establishing a one-party system in Thailand.

In case of the letter to Bush, revealed by caretaker Senator Kraisak Choonhavan, Thaksin was hoping that with a quick response from Bush, he would then be able to plan his visit to Washington DC and meet up with him. But for some reason the White House sat on it.

Thaksin returned to work in mid-May after a two-month break, sparking intense debate about the status of his premiership. The resignation of Thaksin's two most trusted and valuable lieutenants, Borwornsak Uwanno and Wissanu Krea-ngam, signalled the coming of a perfect storm. After all it was Borwornsak who skilfully drafted Thaksin's letter on April 7 informing government officials about his intended leave of absence. It has been described as "death trap" because its ambivalent content could be used and interpreted against Thaksin's reign of power.

When he resumed his Saturday radio talk show on July 1, he used the opportunity to stress the legitimacy of his leadership by referring to several meetings he had during his two-month absence. He had met with French President Jacques Chirac, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in their respective capitals. All the leaders, he said, were very nice to him.

Thaksin told these leaders about the political situation in Thailand and emphasised that he had won the election on April 2, which was subsequently annulled, by a landslide. He chose to highlight his meeting with Chirac, who visited Thailand as a guest of His Majesty the King in February. He said he was grateful to Chirac because he had asked for half-hour meeting and was given 55 minutes by the French president. The French Embassy in Bangkok was unable to confirm this assertion.

The fact that Kraisak, who learned about the content of Thaksin's letter to Bush only on June 30, chose to reveal it to the press last week must be linked with Thaksin's repeated attempts to portray himself abroad as a true democratic leader who has suffered from the insidious ploys of undemocratic forces in Thailand. All this time, Thaksin along with professional public-relations experts has painstakingly tried to create the image of a leader who is genuinely caring and democratic, while the rest of Thailand is not.

After a week's lull following the celebrations of the King's 60th anniversary on the throne, all hell broke loose following Thaksin's deliberately controversial remarks. When he said that someone with "barami" or reserved power, was try to oust him through unconstitutional means, it opened a Pandora's box because there are only one or two people in Thailand who fit this description. As usual, Thaksin's aides are now scrambling to explain to the public whom their boss had in mind.

It got a bit preposterous when Government Spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee came out in Thaksin's defence to say that Thaksin was referring to ordinary folk. But Meechai Ruchuphan, former Senate spokesman, minced no words when he said the person Thaksin had referred to could probably be the King himself. Of course, only a person of Meechai's credentials and calibre could make such a succinct linkage.

Over the weekend, Prommin Letsuridej, secretary-general to the prime minister, confirmed the existence of the letter to Bush and went on to say that the contents would be revealed soon. He said that as leader of the caretaker government, Thaksin wanted to report this unusual circumstance in Thai politics to the world community. It was a pretty odd thing to do, given the strong support the Thai Rak Thai Party received in rural areas back home.

To political pundits, the lack of response from the US president in the past two months indicates the White House's scepticism about Thaksin's version of the Thai political situation and his own role in it. Thaksin would still like to have a meeting with Bush to shore up his position. After all, he has met all those other key Western leaders important to his international image. That helps explain why Thaksin's letter was leaked and was the subject of discussion during a meeting in Bangkok on June 30 between prominent persons including Kraisak, ML Piya Malakul na Ayutthaya and diplomats.

After the commemoration of his accession to throne, attended by members of 25 royal houses from around the world, the King's reputation was bolstered even further, both for his role in development and as a promoter of democracy. The outpouring of public love and respect during the celebrations also changed the minds of many Western leaders who had been subjected to Thaksin's diplomatic bombardments that he alone, as an elected leader, enshrined the democratic values of Thailand. This is the reason why Thaksin continues to push for a new election.

On Friday, the Royal Decree to hold a general election on October 15 that was drafted and submitted by the government for royal signature was quietly returned to sender. On Saturday, the Royal Household Bureau announced that HM the King had suffered minor injuries while exercising at the Chitralada Palace on June 24 and that doctors had recommended that the he refrain from official duties and take a complete rest.

Stepping up pressure on Thaksin to clarify his controversial remark, the People's Alliance for Democracy has urged the public to join a major rally at the Government House on Friday to defend the democratic system with the King as the head of state.

All things considered, it will be sooner rather than later that all these developments, sometimes unrelated, gather momentum and produce political fireworks with consequences beyond our imagination.

Kavi Chongkittavorn