Anant Laulertvorakul, a coordinator of Chulalongkorn University's Network for Ethical Democracy, said the political crisis could lead to violence if caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra refused to bow to the courts.

He said the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) rally scheduled for Friday might not be able to force Thaksin from office but could spark further protests.

"The protesters will linger. US groups opposing the Vietnam War grew from university rallies, which forced presidents to change their policies. The rallies will show that people reject Thaksin. Protesting is a constitutional right, not illegal as some government mouthpieces claim," he said.

An arts lecturer, Anant said many CU Network members and academics would join the PAD rally individually so as not to damage Chulalongkorn's reputation.

The network, which includes Chulalongkorn lecturers, officials, students and alumni, called for Thaksin's resignation in March.

Meanwhile, Democrat Party executive Sathit Wongnongtoey said the crisis would increase through the crowded political calendar for the next two months.

"It's impossible to say when the problems will end. Nobody can predict what will happen and how the crises will develop," Sathit said.

He refused to predict the court decisions and the impact of the rulings. While Thai Rak Thai hopes for an October 15 election, many groups will not accept a poll managed by the three current election commissioners, Sathit added.

Even if the Criminal Court hands down a guilty verdict on the commissioners, they can still appeal and keep their positions. Alternatively the EC selection process will be drawn out, allowing political tensions to intensify.

The crisis is a result of five years of Thaksin's rule and the premier's comments about a "charismatic person" demonstrated what dominated his thinking, Sathit said.

Voters had become familiar with Thaksin's strategies, he added, and as a consequence had come to a similar conclusion about the identity of the "charismatic person" and arrived at shared hostility to the remarks.

July and August appear likely to be hot months, which could affect the fate of powerful figures.

On Thursday, the Constitution Court is scheduled to consider whether to accept the electoral fraud case that could lead to the dissolution of five political parties, after receiving 70 boxes of documents, containing more than 140,000 pages from the Office of the Attorney-General.

Acting Constitution Court president Pan Chantaraparn said if accepted, the case would probably be considered urgent.

However, Pan could not guarantee the court would resolve the case before an October 15 election.

Also on Thursday  pro-government Caravan of the Poor leaders will meet in Sakon Nakhon to discuss their stance and plan activities.

On Friday the PAD plans to march from Sanam Luang to Government House to call for Thaksin's resignation.

The group also plans to force Thaksin to reveal the identity of the "charismatic person who has power beyond the Constitution", who is trying to undermine democratic institutions and topple his government, as he claimed recently.

It will be the first major PAD rally after it paused to celebrate His Majesty the King's 60 years on the throne.

Next Monday  the two sides in the Election Commission (EC) malfeasance case are due to submit their conclusions to the Criminal Court.

The case, brought by Democrat Party secretary-general Thaworn Senneam, accuses the EC of breaking the electoral law by holding controversial repeat elections on April 23.

On July 25 the court is scheduled to reveal the fate of the three commissioners, Vasana Puemlarp, Prinya Nakchudtree and Virachai Naewboonnien, who will be forced out of their jobs if they are found guilty and could receive jail sentences.

The Supreme Court might have to nominate 10 EC candidates for the Senate's approval and the court's ruling could scupper plans for an October election.

It will also have an impact on the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties.

When a political party is dissolved, its elected candidates can affiliate themselves with another party and continue to serve as MPs.

But if the party is dissolved before an election, its candidates will not be able to stand unless they have been a member of another party for 90 days before candidate registration.

Moreover, the date of registration must be within 20 days of the Royal Decree for the general election, which is expected on August 15 in time for an October 15 election.

Jidakarn Limkhoonset,

Kornchanok Raksaseri

The Nation