A shortage of pilots, engineers and other skilled employees is forcing some Asia-Pacific airlines to scale back their expansion plans, and the problem is likely to get worse, the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (Capa) said yesterday.

Capa estimates that airline operators in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East will need 150,000 additional employees to support aircraft currently on order.

The centre's warning comes ahead of the region's first high-level aviation conference on training and outsourcing, Aviation Training Asia 2006, which is being organised by Capa and Flight International, an industry publication.

The conference will be held in Hong Kong on September 21 and 22, and will draw representatives from governments, airlines, airports and training institutions.

"If I had to choose between fuel costs, rising interest rates and staff shortages as the biggest potential disruption to aviation growth in this region, I would put my money on staff shortages," said Peter Harbison, executive chairman of Capa.

The big problem for fast-growing and emerging markets is the turbulence caused by trimming expansion plans, he said. The looming training crisis is also increasing pressure on governments to change the regulatory environment to make it easier to train and retain personnel, while trying to strike a balance with the all-important requirement that safety must come first.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation this week cut its growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 3.1 per cent for this year and 4.6 per cent next year.

The growth forecast for the region is still above the global average, but the revision by the UN agency is a worrying sign, Harbison said.

Kevin O'Toole of Flight International said the escalating shortages of skilled workers, particularly pilots and maintenance engineers, follows record aircraft orders in this region in recent years.

The shortage will push up wages, adding to costs and potentially hampering expansion plans. It has also proven a problem in lower-wage countries where aggressive new players, especially in the Middle East, are poaching pilots, O'Toole said.

Capa provides advisory and information services to airlines, airports, governments, regulatory agencies and suppliers. Headquartered in Sydney, it has regional offices in Singapore, New Delhi, Geneva and Manchester and representatives in Auckland, Bangkok, Beijing, Dhaka, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Suchat Sritama

The Nation