So, I'll keep the "Who?" for last and take on the "Why?" first. As usual, while our newsroom analyses are done scientifically, it's worth noting that Thailand's political turmoil is growing increasingly illogical and more absurd with each passing day. Please exercise your personal judgement as always.

Our first theory shall be called "Cry Baby". After initially putting on a brave face in the wake of the prosecutors' virtual decision to indict his Thai Rak Thai Party along with the Democrat Party for election fraud, Thaksin may have suddenly got cold feet. Looming indictment has all but dashed his hopes to see a general election within October, which may have enabled him to regain political strength. Besides, there are threats of other court cases while two of his best and most trusted legal aides have deserted him.

Advocates of this theory believe that Thaksin's message was intended not only for his rural supporters, but also for the international community. Probably touched by certain editorials in foreign publications that perceived him as a victim of "mob rule", he decided to add a credible mastermind into his sad story. "Someone with big clout outside the democratic system" is a sexy complaint that could help reinforce the western sympathy he has been receiving lately. Thaksin could be planning to renew his push for an October election. The conspiracy complaint and portraying himself as a victimised champion of democracy constitute his big gamble - his last throw of the dice.

The second theory takes the opposite point of view. "Going Ballistic", "Gloves off Time", "Kamikaze" - take your pick. This one paints a picture of a furious and arrogant Thaksin, who was angered by the resignations from the Cabinet of Wissanu Krea-ngam and Bowornsak Uwanno, but one who was buoyed with renewed confidence in what's left of his political power.

This school of thought contains some scary bits: While the current political showdown will take place largely in the key courts, it can also reach the stage of military confrontation. You can dismiss this, but our political situation has reached a point where nothing is too far-fetched anymore.

Optimists may like the next theory. Let's call it "Wayne Rooney". Thaksin just shot his mouth off as a matter of routine and meant no malice, but his opponents smelled blood and zoomed in on him like Christiano Ronaldo in a bid to get him sent off.

Don't believe it? Nah ... me neither.

Next is the "Swansong" theory. Nobody can explain this theory better than Thaksin himself: "Whenever [independent] bodies are interfered with or controlled by outside power, trouble will occur ... I will protect democracy with my life. I will not allow anyone to take away democracy from Thailand as long as I'm prime minister of this country ... To good people, rules are there to be observed; to bad people, they are there to be avoided. When rules are broken, bad guys benefit but good guys suffer." How nice to hear him speak that way. Yet every time I think of Thaksin and democracy, the image of Lex Luthor with the crystal from the planet Krypton in his hands springs to mind.

Now, the question you have been bothering me with through phone calls and emails: Who was he talking about?

To tell the truth, I'm not sure. Punters, analysts, speculators and simply sadistic political watchers have given the name of Privy Council head Prem Tinsulanonda, but, in my opinion, you will have to look at reality, not what Thaksin wanted us to believe.

So, let's clarify the question a bit: Who's undermining Thaksin?

Who's that "someone" who doesn't respect the rule of law? Who's that "someone" with power who doesn't hold democracy in highest esteem? Who's that "someone" who has a penchant for controlling independent bodies? Who broke the rules and made bad guys benefit and good guys suffer?

Hopefully that makes it a bit easier for you now.

Tulsathit Taptim