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Tue, July 4, 2006 : Last updated 20:30 pm (Thai local time)



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Home > Opinion > Human spread of bird flu ominous





EDITORIAL
Human spread of bird flu ominous

Recent evidence of H5N1 virus being passed among humans has potentially devastating implications

Last month's chilling announcement by the World Health Organisation (WHO) that seven members of an Indonesian family who died of bird flu the month before may have been the first cases of human-to-human transmission of the deadly virus made headlines around the world. WHO experts were quick to point out that the spread of the disease within the family on Sumatra was not the result of a virus mutation and that there was no evidence to indicate this was the first step towards a global pandemic.

However, the world's top bird-flu experts, who convened a consultative meeting at the request of the Indonesian government last month, have yet to explain why only blood relatives - not spouses - became infected after one contracted the virus after living and working in close proximity to infected poultry. Some experts contend the blood relatives had a common genetic predisposition that made them susceptible to the H5N1 virus, but there is no evidence to support that claim.

Obviously, the WHO is doing its best to strike a delicate balance between not causing a worldwide panic and the need to prompt the international community to prepare for if and when the now-sporadic human bird-flu cases become a pandemic.

Indonesia has been among the countries hardest hit by the virus, with 51 confirmed human infections and 39 deaths. In Vietnam, 93 cases of human infection have been reported, and 42 have died, while in Thailand 14 out of 22 people infected have died. The WHO's latest statistics show a total of 228 human bird-flu cases with 130 deaths reported in several countries around the world since the first human infections were first detected in Vietnam in 2003.

The spread of the virus has raised fears that a flu pandemic could break out and kill millions worldwide.

The international response has been dramatic and robust. Wealthy industrial nations, including the US and those in Europe, have started to discuss plans for fast-track development of flu vaccines, in order to ensure that their citizens are better protected in the event of a flu pandemic.

Healthcare experts have warned that if and when the bird flu starts mutating and spreading easily among humans, the time it takes for governments and public-health authorities to react will be the most crucial factor. It cannot be emphasised strongly enough that it could take up to six months to make and market a vaccine. The best defence is for governments around the world to come up with a common plan of action backed by financial and health resources.

Rich countries can do a lot more to help developing countries - where outbreaks of human bird-flu strains would likely originate - step up their preparedness to contain a flu pandemic at its source.

Although Thailand has reported no new human cases of bird flu this year, the possibility of a renewed outbreak remains a constant threat. Compared with other developing countries, Thailand has done a decent job of getting ready for the possibility of an outbreak of the human form of bird flu.

The Thai government has stockpiled 200,000 doses of anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu that can be used to treat people infected with bird flu and is administering flu vaccines to vulnerable people like children and the elderly. These measures were implemented along with a nationwide monitoring system, the designation of outbreak areas, strict quarantines, mandatory culling of affected birds and a standard procedure to screen and diagnose suspected cases of human bird-flu infection.

What remains to be done is to develop a contingency plan for use in the event a sudden pandemic threatens to paralyse the country's economic activity, exhaust public-health resources and disrupt key public services like transport systems. Not to mention residual effects like a global economic slowdown. All of this the government and private sector must discuss, in order to ensure effective crisis management if and when worse comes to worst.







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