Businesses have mixed views on effects of political turmoil

Consumer-products maker Saha Group is taking a wait-and-see attitude on new investment, pending developments in the country's political landscape, which remains murky following the Constitution Court's decision to consider the proposed dissolution of five political parties.
Saha Group's chairman, Boonsithi Chokwatana, said the business sector was hoping for political stability to create a favourable atmosphere. "We'll keep monitoring the political situation every day," he said. He said that without the political uncertainty, Thailand would be registering double-digit economic growth this year because the country was in a good mood as result of the celebrations on the 60-year-anniversary of His Majesty the King's accession to the throne. "I hope the situation will settle down this year," he said. He said that high oil prices had not affected the group's business because they were anticipated, helping the company cope with the higher costs. The company is more concerned about climbing interest rates and the strong baht. If the five parties are dissolved, the next election would be delayed beyond October, the month they are currently scheduled for. And because a new government cannot be formed, businesses are concerned over what economic policies will be next year. Still, Vicha Poolvaraluck, chairman of Major Cineplex Plc's executive board, urged businesses to proceed with their plans despite the political problems. He said the company, which operates cinemas, was sticking to its plan to open 40 more movie theatres in 2007. "Major is now studying whether to open a few more theatres in Pattaya," Vicha said. He added that the cinema business was going well and its performance was on target. This reflects the expectation that the political uncertainty and economic slowdown will not greatly affect spending in cinemas. To the contrary, consumers have spent more on cinema-going since it is a relatively cheap form of entertainment. Meanwhile, Saithip Montrikul Na Ayudhya, managing director of GMM Media Plc, said she was concerned about the radio business in the year's second half. She predicted that the industry would shrink. "Prolonged political uncertainty will hurt the business, resulting in less advertising spending," she said. To retain its market share of listeners, GMM Media this year has set aside about Bt100 million for marketing, Saithip said. Kosit Panpiemras, executive chairman of Bangkok Bank, said he was more concerned about social divisions than politics, saying the divisiveness would hurt the economy more than political turmoil. "Political turmoil doesn't matter for the country's economic growth, even though the general election has been pushed back or the Budget Bill will be delayed. This is secondary to social division," he said. Kosit said that despite the poor sentiment, the economy would grow steadily in the second half. As a result, the bank has maintained its 2006 gross-domestic-product growth projection of 4 to 4.5 per cent. Exports and domestic investment, in particular, from state enterprises and the private sector, will be core drivers of the economy this year. Exports in US dollar terms and investment will grow by 12.8 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively, according to a macroeconomic analysis by Bangkok Bank. Meanwhile, the bank forecasts economic growth of 3.3 to 3.8 per cent in the second half, compared to 4.6 to 5.3 per cent in the first half. The bank, moreover, has maintained its loan-growth target for the year at 4 to 5 per cent, despite only 3-per-cent growth in the first five months.
|