The signal from Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is clear: he and his Thai Rak Thai Party will not die alone. Hitherto, there was an impression that the Constitution Court would rule on a pressing case against Thai Rak Thai, which allegedly bankrolled smaller parties to run in the April 2 snap election, and that the ruling could result in the dissolution of the party.

But the latest events have further tightened the knot. The Office of the Attorney-General, which has taken over the cases from the Election Commission, is likely to recommend that the Constitution Court dissolve not only Thai Rak Thai but also the Democrat and three other small parties for alleged violations of electoral laws and the Constitution.

In effect, if Thai Rak Thai were to be dissolved, the Democrat Party would have to go down the drain with it. The executive members of both parties would be banned from forming new parties or serving as party executives for five years, and would be limited to joining existing parties as ordinary members. The Constitution Court is expected to launch proceedings in these cases of bigger parties bankrolling smaller parties in time to ensure that it arrives at verdicts within the next month.

What would the consequences of the Constitution Court's verdicts be? Some would say the political crisis would deepen further if the Thai Rak Thai and the Democrat parties were to face the firing squad. In a way, the judicial body has been tasked with the almost impossible responsibility of unravelling the political deadlock. We have to wait and see whether the court's verdicts, arrived at strictly within the legal boundaries, can address the larger problems in the political arena. If the highest courts of the land fail to tackle the political crisis, their credibility will also be at risk. Then, all of Thailand's institutions will be crumbling into dust.

Banharn Silapa-archa of the Chat Thai Party might emerge uncontested as the next national leader, but he cannot really smile because he, too, understands the gravity of the current political crisis.

Thaksin will not go down easily. He is fighting with his back to the wall. We can detect his willingness to resort to any measure to launch a counter-attack for his own survival. The Thai Rak Thai Party can easily mobilise several hundred thousand people from upcountry to support its leader. A confrontation could ensue. Nobody wants to see bloodshed, but the crisis - deepening by the day - appears to be moving toward an inevitable grand collision.

To survive, Thaksin needs a new election badly. But this will not take place under the watch of the current three members of the Election Commission (EC), who have lost all credibility to conduct another election. The EC has recommended October 15 as the new election date and the Thaksin Cabinet has submitted a royal decree to the Private Secretary of His Majesty the King for royal endorsement. However, it appears that as long as there are questions about the legal status of the EC - which should be operated by five members, not three as is now the case - and the credibility of its members, royal endorsement of the new election date will not happen.

Thaksin has said he would submit the draft decree on the new election again in August. In so doing, he plans to rewrite the decree and, more significantly, signal an end to the political support for EC chairman Vasana Puemlarp and his two fellow commissioners. In short, Thaksin has played all of his cards. He asks only that he be allowed to stay in the game. Any attempt to derail him from politics forever will be met with equal menace.

Can the Thai elite strike a compromise with Thaksin to end the political impasse? It is difficult to picture a new political theatre with Thaksin as a key actor, given the bitter divisions within the country. Thaksin's enemies would like to end his political career and the regime he has created. In the meantime, Thaksin would argue that he has done nothing wrong. Besides, he has been working within the democratic system. And most importantly, he received 16 million votes in the April 2 snap election.

Given this scenario, only the military option remains as a last resort to end the deadlock. The coup would tear up the Constitution and introduce an interim government to look after constitutional reform, a process that would take, say, three months. After this, a fresh election would be held.

But the big question is who will stage the coup, as the military factions are equally divided.

Thanong Khanthong

The Nation