What would be the effect on the Thai political landscape of a ruling that results in the major parties being wiped off the Election Commission's register?

"The dissolution of the two parties would cause the October 15 election date to be postponed to avoid a big mess," Thammasat University lecturer Prinya Thewanaruemitkul said.

If the court rules the two heavyweights should be dissolved, and the EC insists on the October 15 poll date, all the big names and would-be politicians would be disqualified as the beginning of the mandatory 90-day party membership period would have long since passed, Prinya said.

Under this scenario, the remaining parties would, obviously, benefit enormously from the removal of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats, he said.

The Chat Thai Party, in particular, could well become the most popular party, and its leader, Banharn Silapa-archa, a "surprise" premier, Prinya said.

The two major parties are both facing serious charges.

Thai Rak Thai is at risk of dissolution after an Election Commission (EC) investigative panel found it violated the law by hiring small political parties to run in the April 2 election and subsequent rounds of voting to avoid running unopposed. Standing alone would have required Thai Rak Thai candidates to secure at least 20 per cent of the vote to win.

The Democrat Party is accused of attempting to thwart the April 2 general election by hiring small parties to boycott it and hiring two of them to frame Thai Rak Thai.

Although some legal experts believe neither party will be dissolved as such an action would aggravate the drawn-out political crisis, history shows the Constitution Court has dissolved every party that has faced such a threat so far.

Under the law, if a party is dissolved because of these alleged misdeeds or for trying to assume power by unconstitutional means, its executives are banned from founding a new party or being executives of a party for five years.

In other words, if Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra or Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and their executives are found guilty, they could still stand for Parliament and become a minister or even prime minister. All they would have to do is switch their allegiance to an existing party and join as an ordinary member.

However, Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats will have to pray the EC postpones the next election long enough for them to be eligible to join another party (ie. more than 90 days after any such ban). Otherwise they are likely to sit in the political wilderness while rival parties hold the reins of power.

Somchai Preechasilapakul, a Chiang Mai University lecturer, believed dissolution would not badly hurt the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai leaders because they were well prepared to set up "substitute parties". They would simply transfer their leading members to these parties to run in the next House campaign, he said.

Under this scenario, Somchai said, the EC would have to postpone the October 15 poll to give members of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats more time to join alternate parties. Otherwise, the outcome of the next election could be worse than the nullified April 2 poll, which was unacceptable to the general public, he said.

The worst-case scenario may be that, while the whole country desperately waits for a new stable government acceptable to all political groups, the Constitution Court fails to issue verdicts in these cases anytime soon. That would leave Thaksin's caretaker government in power for many months - possibly into the New Year. And the EC would be unable to set a poll date that would produce the best outcome for the country.