And only a few days later, Thaksin proved those on the side of caution right. He made it abundantly clear that not only did he intend to hang on but also to lead the charge into the next election for the Thai Rak Thai Party.

A shrewd politician like Thaksin is definitely not blind to the forces that have been building up against him and his party. But again, he has so much at stake that he is unlikely to make a quiet exit. The fact that Thaksin decided to cut short his "political break" to resume control of Government House was a clear indication that he still had some unfinished agenda.

However, despite all the pressure piling on him from all sides, Thaksin still holds the key to finding a breakthrough to the current political crisis. His diminished political stature doesn't mean that as prime minister, and arguably still a popular one, he will not be able to play a trump card.

In the worst case scenario, if the prospect of the political deadlock degenerating into violent confrontation doesn't bother him, Thaksin can choose to ride on. Who cares that the political vacuum will continue and blood may be spilled on the streets as long as he and his Thai Rak Thai Party are still in power?

And, of course, there have been enough voices among members of Thaksin' close political circle advocating such a hardline approach. They have made known their desire to see Thaksin continue to weather the political storm and go ahead with the election in October (organised by the Thai Rak Thai-friendly Election Commission). And if Thai Rak Thai is swept back to power again, there is no reason why Thaksin should not take the reins.

And judging from Thaksin's remarks to his party members on Sunday, there is no turning back for the prime minister.

For a while, however, there were signs that the unfolding events of the past several weeks seemed to have had a sobering impact on the caretaker prime minister. No matter how much he wanted to invoke his "popular mandate", Thaksin knew that he was up against powers over which he had no control.

With the judicial branch bearing down on the Election Commission and his Thai Rak Thai Party over the parties-for-hire scandal, and the prospect of more street demonstrations, it must have dawned on Thaksin that there was something inevitable about his political fate.

It was probably Thaksin's tacit acknowledgement of this when he implied last week that sooner or later his time in office must come to an end under pressure from "individuals or groups of individuals".

The abrupt resignations of his two most trusted legal hands, Cabinet Secretary-General Borwornsak Uwanno and Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, came as a big blow to Thaksin and only added weight to speculation that his caretaker government's days are numbered.

But Thaksin still seems to be buying time and has his options open, apparently hoping that his political misfortune can still be reversed somehow. Given his stubbornness and arrogance, Thaksin is unlikely to call it quits unless he has no other choice - even knowing full well that he is challenging forces that are beyond him.

Maybe, by putting on a brave face, he believes he can bargain for time to find a graceful exit and a guarantee that his back will be covered once he is out of power.

Or maybe he wants an assurance that with or without him at the helm, Thai Rak Thai will continue to be a political force - under whatever name in the event it is dissolved by the Constitutional Court.

But whatever cards Thaksin plays, he knows there is no way he can restore the glory days of his political empire. The one-party rule that he lauded as the foundation stone of political stability and his brand of populism was a political dream-come-true that he knows he cannot possibly relive.

Thaksin may have been telling the truth when he insisted that he was not "demoralised" by the chain of events engulfing his premiership. But the question confronting him has less to do with his mental state and more to do with his political future and the survival of his political empire.

And Thaksin knows full well that despite his show of political bravado, all the odds are against him.

Thepchai Yong