They say Thailand can do this by reducing infant deaths and curbing the rise in road-accident fatalities and HIV/Aids among young adults - factors attributed to current low life-expectancy rates.

Life expectancy is an important indicator of world living quality.

The current life expectancy for Thais is about 70 years, said Pramote Prasartkul, a professor of demography at Mahidol University's Institute for Population and Social Research.

Thailand's population is increasing only gradually, and is expected to peak at 65 million in the next two decades, then start to fall, he said.

Current estimates are for about 800,000 births each year.

And there are about 500,000 deaths annually, the professor said. That means a net population increase of 300,000 a year.

Births are projected to drop to 700,000 per year and the death rate is forecast to rise to about 700,000 annually, Pramote said.

"This means more people are dying while there will be fewer births," he said, adding that the recommendations from his institute were to reduce deaths and help people live longer. "Of course, what we're saying is not just about simply raising the numbers," said Assoc Prof Churnrurtai Kanchanachitra, head of the institute. "Optimistically, it would be best if people could live a long life as healthily as possible."

"If veterans can live longer and healthily, they can contribute a lot more to society," said Assoc Prof Kritaya Archavanitkul. "Forget about the stereotype of the elderly being burdens."

Economist Pungpond Rukumnuaykit said premature deaths cost society money. The psychological effects on families were also costly.

"At the moment, I cannot say exactly if [people living longer] will be a burden or benefit. It could be both depending on how well we make it," Pungpond said.

A recent study she did on the cost of deaths found that low-income families were worst affected, especially if the main breadwinner died.

The study showed that when a family head died young, the loss of income was as much as 77 per cent. In higher-income families, the figure was 70 per cent.

Thailand should learn from the Japanese approach to preparing for a rise in the number of elderly and a fall in overall population, the experts suggested.

Arthit Khwankhom

The Nation