While the political mainstream has been focussed on possible dissolution of Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats for attempting to "topple democracy", the long investigation into their supposed misdeeds could be a waste of time when compared to the likely punishment.

If both are dissolved, and their experienced members prevented from taking part in the October 15 election (under the 90-day rule), it could trigger an even bigger crisis.

In recent weeks, media coverage has been dominated by an expectation that at least one of the two titans will be vanquished by the Constitution Court.

Thai Rak Thai is at risk after an Election Commission investigative panel found it had violated the law by hiring small political parties to run in the April 2 election and subsequent rounds of voting.

It allegedly did this so that its prospective MPs would not be sole candidates in a constituency and thereby face the prospect of being required to win 20 per cent of the vote. The percentage rule does not apply if there are two or more candidates in a constituency.

The Democrat Party is accused of campaigning to topple democracy by refraining from fielding candidates and thereby obstruct voting. It is also alleged to have collaborated with other small parties to set up the Thai Rak Thai candidates.

The EC has passed both cases to the Office of the Attorney General, asking for its approval before handing them to the Constitution Court for a final decision, which is expected in August at the soonest.

But it is a long journey before any dissolution could take place.

In the case of such a serious allegation as attempting to "topple democracy", the punishment is something of a farce. Under the law, if a party is dissolved because of this misdeed or tries to assume power by unconstitutional means, its executives are banned from founding a new party or being executives of a party for five years.

In other words, if Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra or Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and their executives are found guilty, they can still stand for Parliament and become a minister or even prime minister. All they have to do is switch their allegiance to an existing party and join as an ordinary member.

The names "Thai Rak Thai" and "Democrat" would be wiped from the EC's register, but all the familiar names would still be on the political merry-go-round.

So, playing the "dissolution card" is really only designed to discredit the party, not the member.

Conversely, dissolution would affect millions of party members. Thai Rak Thai has more than 14 million members, the Democrats 4 million, all of whom would be cast into the political wilderness.

Should any of the members, including the big names, want to run for House seats in the next election, they can - as things stand at the moment - forget it if the Election Commission holds to the October 15 poll date. Party registration under the 90-day rule has long since passed.

Given this scenario and the prospect of the two political heavyweights being dissolved, there are a lot of nervous politicians and would-be politicians praying that the EC will postpone the next election just long enough for them to become party eligible. Otherwise they will likely be sitting in the political wilderness for a few years watching rival parties holding the reins of power and making political hay while the sun shines.

As the whole country desperately needs a new and stable government that is acceptable to all political groups, the prospect of an administration that doesn't include the big names of Thailand's two most popular political parties raises the question of whether dissolution is indeed the right answer.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation