SIDELINES
No more tough talk about crisis in the South

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra appeared unruffled by the sudden resurgence of terrorist acts in the three southernmost provinces this week with a rash of bomb blasts that caused injuries and loss of life. Such violent incidents have become familiar to him.
Repeated failure to contain terrorist activity obviously does not make him feel that he should take responsibility and let somebody else with real competence handle the formidable task. Why should he care now? The crisis, surely a result of his policy and strategic blunders, has persisted for a few years already, with bodies piling up in the complicated conflict. A lot of people must have become resigned to the fact that as long as Thaksin and his crowd are in power there is no chance for a workable solution. After all, what obviously concerns the embattled billionaire businessman the most in politics is not a threat to national security, but clear and present danger to the security of his survival. If Thaksin treated the crisis as top priority, he would have skipped a trip to Kazakhstan to rub shoulders with Russian, Chinese and other leaders in a session that has yet to become truly significant. Since international exposure in the company of world VIPs is what he always enjoys, he can find somebody to face the heat on his behalf. Thaksin has scaled down his bravado and tough talk about the situation in the South. He is reluctant to visit the crisis-plagued areas, partly due to fear for his own security and possible street demonstrations by people who despise his leadership. He has not set foot in the South in the past few months since the political divide became uglier when pro-democracy groups and southern politicians were mobbed by violent Thaksin supporters in the North and Northeast. Whether with him or anybody else in charge there, it would not make any difference anyway. If Thaksin and his cronies were capable of handling menaces and crises - surely not as pleasant as handing out populist plans to win the hearts and souls of rural grassroots folk - the country would not have been in this miserable state of structural weakness. Thaksin's foreign trips are always more rewarding than just social chit-chat with world leaders. Such events are for political connections in high places that could facilitate business deals for mutual benefit. He can explore investment opportunities to further enhance wealth. Kazakhstan is rich in oil and gas for somebody who has huge cash reserves for serious ventures. With growing political pressure and tighter space to manoeuvre, Thaksin needs to find safe places for his vast financial fortune. Stacking his wealth in just a few places is not only risky, but does not yield handsome return on investment either. He seems to have recovered from a profound conviction last week that it is not he who truly holds ultimate power in the land, enjoying the genuine faith and love of the rural grassroots folks as once he might have been led to believe. Such painful reality must have made him realise as well that further efforts to regain broad-based popularity amidst growing adversity are unwise and not financially worthwhile. Still, as long as Thaksin retains power he will have to hang tough and ignore the outcry for him to display good conscience and accountability for failure to resolve the crisis in the three southern provinces. Why so? He has been around for more than five years, why shouldn't the people bear with him until his term expires, or until he is out by whatever means? As long as he does not call it quits, no legal power in the land as of now can force him out of the job, or so he believes. Self-preservation is natural for politicians and there is nothing wrong with struggling harder to stay in power longer. The people's final hope therefore rests with the judiciary, which currently has to handle a number of cases in the Criminal Court and Constitutional Court before ruling on the fate of Thaksin and his Thai Rak Thai Party. Sentiment as well as speculation is high that something positive for the country could happen soon, before there is any political confrontation. But the fate of the country hangs in the balance, with no clear sign whether there will be a general election on October 15, as Thaksin and his crowd expect. The Election Commission, now discredited, also faces an uncertain future with a few criminal cases pending judgement. With time left in office, there are opportunities to make more money among his political and business cronies. Time is money. That means more scandals in the days and months to come. Why worry? In the past five years, there have been countless scandals about corruption and misdeeds - a few more or many more should not matter. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Sopon Onkgara
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