The effect of the 90-day rule, to which "slave MPs" in the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party claim they are held captive, has been alleviated for a week - despite no constitutional reforms having begun.

However, they have shown no sign of "jumping ship" while their party leader Thaksin Shinawatra is desperately finding a way to re-consolidate his power.

When the government announced on May 31 that the new election would take place on October 15, the so-called "slaves" had a golden chance to free themselves from the 90-day chains.

As the law requires, a House candidate must hold membership of a political party for at least 90 days prior to the application date. This means any of them who want to move have at least seven days to decide their fate.

Application for party-list candidates will be held on September 5-7 while that of constituent contenders will be held on September 8-12.

So, the deadline for the "slaves" to make such a move is today.

But Thai Rak Thai factions - particularly Wang Nam Yom, as the one with most bargaining power - have kept silent over the issue.

The main reason is that nothing could guarantee them a bright future under the umbrella of other parties.

A recent Abac Poll showed that the ruling party is still in the hearts and minds of most Bangkok voters although it has faced a crisis of faith for several months.

This does not take into account the huge popularity of Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai Party in constituencies in the North, Northeast and Central regions.

In the meantime, Thai Rak Thai's main rival, the Democrat Party, has failed to hike its popularity as Abhisit Vejjajiva has not been able to present himself as a "replacement" in the hearts of Thai voters.

Having no political charisma, it is unimaginable that he could handle Wang Nam Yom leaders Suriya Jungrungreangkit and Somsak Thepsuthin, whose clout could even shake the survival of the Thaksin premiership.

The "slaves" surely do not want to take the risk of ending up on the losing side.

They also appear to see the political mainstream as full of uncertainty.

The election date of October 15 could be declared invalid if the three remaining election commissioners resign or face prison terms if found guilty of misconduct over their management of the April elections. Anti-government groups have sued them for allegedly siding with the Thai Rak Thai government.

Both Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats are facing the threat of dissolution over allegedly hiring small parties to file - and not file - candidates in the April polls, respectively.

A condition that the new government should go ahead with amending the Constitution and not rule more than one year before dissolving the House, has also forced the "slaves" to have second thoughts.

The 90-day rule will be top of the agenda when the amendment process begins. So, they will be free to stay or leave.

By that time, the political

circumstances will be clear for them to decide the best course to take.

Political Desk

 The Nation