Over the next four weeks, Thais will devote their attention to the Fifa World Cup tournament, giving their politicians a window of opportunity to step out of the limelight and make behind-the-scenes preparations for the new election.

Though ballots won't be cast until October 15, powerbrokers are banking on a split-vote outcome that will prompt either a Democrat-led coalition or the return of the Thai Rak Thai Party - with the help of many coalition partners.

Political pundits predict a flurry of activity in the coming weeks as major parties jockey for the best position to influence the formation of the next government.

The Democrat Party is working hard to sway votes as a champion of political reform and transparency.

In order to muster enough support to outpace the ruling party and form a coalition, it has to expand its power base in the lower North and the Northeast.

Judging from the high number of "no votes" in the botched April 2 election, it stands a good chance to defeat the ruling party in Bangkok, the South and several constituencies in the lower North.

The Chat Thai Party is gearing up to reclaim constituencies in the central region. In the 2005 general election, it blamed money politics for losing its strongholds to the ruling party.

Party leader Banharn Silapa-archa has launched an aggressive campaign to poach promising candidates from Thai Rak Thai to boost his party's growth.

Although Banharn may have only a slim chance of reclaiming the premiership, he will definitely have a decisive say on how the next coalition is to be formed.

His support would be crucial to either a comeback by the Democrats or Thai Rak Thai's return. His bargaining leverage will increase further if he decides to team up with his former rival Snoh Thienthong, leader of the newly formed Pracharaj Party.

Following an acrimonious dispute, Snoh parted ways with caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and formed his new party.

It is clear that Snoh's party will not attain national status overnight. His strength lies in his loyal constituents in Sa Kaew and in selected northeastern and central provinces.

In his attempt to remain in the power loop, Snoh has made it clear he no longer holds any grudges against Banharn. Working alone, he could not engineer enough votes to become a kingmaker.

By agreeing to be in Banharn's shadow, he expects to wield influence over the next coalition.

Mahachon Party leader Sanan Kachornprasart seems to be making no headway in recruiting a successor with enough clout to contest the position of prime minister.

Sanan's ambition to name the next government leader collapsed after Supachai Panitchpakdi, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, declined his offer to lead the party.

Sanan is slated to share a similar fate to Snoh, leading a key party destined to influence the coalition alliance but not strong enough to tip the balance.

Having learned a lesson from the political crisis, the ruling party realises it is no longer an invincible force and must form a coalition alliance if it is to cling to power.

Thaksin has given his blessing to party members who want to switch loyalties, hoping not to burn bridges that could be useful in forming future alliances.

With the powerful Wang Nam Yom faction and former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh standing in the background, new party Palang Paendin Thai has emerged as a "spare part" for the ruling party. Two former Thai Rak Thai executives, Likhit Dhiravegin and Sarit Santimethanedol, have admitted they act as proxy leaders for the new party.

Should the ruling party be disbanded over allegations that it bankrolled small parties, party members will have a new banner under which to contest the poll.

If Thai Rak Thai's dissolution can be avoided, government politicians expect the proxy party to undermine their rivals, allowing them to dominate the next coalition.

Avudh Panananda

The Nation