Thailand is still far from safe from natural disasters if Dr Anond Snidvongse, one of one the country's few climate experts, is correct in his predictions. The Chulalongkorn University (CU) scientist has been calling since last year for the country to prepare for the impact of global climate change, particularly the phenomenon known as La Nina, which is characterised by unusually low ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. He warned of the likelihood of continuous heavy rain in particular areas, as well as the consequences such as flash-floods and mudslides.Many people laughed at his warning as Thailand was experiencing a severe drought at the time.

To a scientist, drought and flood are part of the same cycle and therefore predictable from global weather patterns. This is what Dr Anond based his warnings on last year and why he foresees more flash-floods in the North later this year. "This time will be bigger and greater. It will happen soon, by the end of this year," he said, comparing it to last month's flash-flood and mudslide in the northern provinces that claimed 77 lives, affected almost 200,000 people and damaged 300,000 rai of farmland, 341 roads and 96 bridges.

"The North will face the possibility of flash-floods and mudslides, Bangkok may see historic flooding, and the South is likely to experience giant storms. This is what today's information is indicating," he said.

Anond, dubbed "Mr Climate Change" for his significant role in applying climatology in the Thai context, is in fact an oceanographer, a PhD from the University of Hawaii whose thesis was a study of the carbon cycle in the Gulf of Thailand. He recently received funding from the German Research Council for a four-year project to explore and carry out three-dimensional mapping of the Andaman Sea, the first time ever in the Kingdom.

The 46-year-old Bangkok-born scientist graduated in Marine Science from CU and was among the followers of the late marine scientist Dr Suraphol Sudara, who successfully applied marine science to natural-resource management.

"While most of my friends dreamt of becoming doctors, I dreamt of sailing out to sea and surrendering to the charms of marine life," he recalled.

Anond started working on global warming after realising its significance and the fact that only a handful of scientists were working on it. That led him to form a community of climate-change-related scientists under Southeast Asia Start (SysTem for Analysis Research and Training), one of eight regional centres of International Start. One of the centre's main tasks is to simulate the effects of climate change on Thailand and the neighbouring Mekong riparian countries.

He said his forecast of nationwide disasters by the year's end was based on continuous observation of global sea temperatures and climate change.

"Three main reasons are the continued impact of La Nina, strong winds in the Pacific Ocean, and the emerging phenomenon of higher sea temperatures in the Gulf of Thailand," he said. (See graphic.)

La Nina has been monitored closely since last year and continues at its peak at present. It will persist until at least early next year, Dr Anond said. Winds in the Pacific Ocean are stronger than usual this year, which will carry a greater amount of warmer surface water from mid-ocean to coastal areas of Southeast Asia than usual.

"When seasonal rain arrives, La Nina will create a high possibility of extreme rainfall, heavier and continuous during the season," he explained.

The warmer seas around Southeast Asia will create even more rain. Normally, seasonal rain in each area occurs due to the passing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ is the boundary where high- and low-pressure systems meet and humid air is lifted high into the atmosphere to condense and fall as rain.

"Seasonal rain will be heavier due to the higher sea temperature around Southeast Asia. It is the natural rule," Dr Anond said. He warned that things would be worse if a depression or typhoon hit the country.

"Normally Thailand is hit by a depression or typhoon twice annually, which is necessary or else our farmers would run out of water for their seasonal crops, but if these seasonal storms arrive together with La Nina and warmer sea water it will double the rainfall," he said.

Anond said the latest bad news was a warning from the global weather-monitoring agency, Noaa Satellite and Information, that they had found unusually high sea temperatures in the central Gulf of Thailand.

"It is 1-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than average in the area, which is wide. This has never happened before," he said.

"If this continues long enough, coral bleaching is expected, and if it continues until the rainy season arrives, there is a very high possibility of the heaviest rainfall ever," he forecast.

But these are just possible scenarios and need further confirmation, the expert said. "More rain is certain, but how much has yet to be confirmed as it depends on each of the factors I have explained."

In a situation like this, an efficient monitoring and evacuation plan is needed. "We have to prepare people for the possible natural disasters, including flash-floods and mudslides in the North, heavy flooding in Bangkok, a big storm in the South and any others," he said.

The system should comprise three levels: a national one to keep an overview and coordinate the other levels, a provincial level to arrange the monitoring and evacuation plans for particular areas, and a local one to monitor sites and train locals for evacuation.

"The problem is that local people do not understand either La Nina and other causes of natural disasters nor their own risk from living in sensitive areas. Education is urgently needed, together with showing them the landslide-prone areas," he said.

"Hardware like warning towers might be a second priority compared to getting people in risk areas to understand the risk and prepare themselves without panicking," Anond said.

Thailand already has a map of areas prone to landslides, but it needs to be updated for more accuracy, he said.

"Our current map is based on only geological, rainfall and forest-density data. It is a rough map to show how each area faces risk from heavy rain, but it cannot even show how much rainfall would put an area at risk," he explained.

"But it is still good enough to be a basis for drawing up evacuation plans if disaster strikes," he said.

Anond suggested that Thailand adopt an insurance system to guarantee financial aid to affected villagers.

"Natural disasters will occur. We have to accept that we are at risk and can no longer rely on government funds and donations to cover the huge damage," he said. And for how long will La Nina continue affecting Thailand?

"Now is the peak of La Nina. It will continue for a certain period of time, but we cannot be sure how long. After this it might decrease its impact, may regain its peak, or may quickly turn into the serious drought typical of El Nino. No one knows, but we can be sure that La Nina will be felt at least till early next year and is likely to stay with us for several years with unpredictable levels of impact," Anond said.

Kamol Sukin