"We won't say we will miss the target, but we need to put the export growth target into two brackets, 15 or 17.5 per cent," said Chantra Purnariksha, the department's director-general.

He said orders from buyers were expected to decrease, adding Thailand must therefore aggressively promote trade in markets that have high potential.

The Commerce Ministry has estimated Thailand's total export growth at 17.5 per cent, equivalent to US$130.28 billion (Bt4.98 trillion) this year.

The first four months of this year witnessed exports $38.76 billion, a growth of 15.9 per cent on the same period last year. On average, export income each month was $9.69 billion.

In order to achieve the target of 17.5 per cent during the remaining months, exports must increase by 18.2 per cent - or a to a total of $91.52 billion, an average of $11.4 billion per month.

In an attempt to quickly accelerate trade the department has arranged more than 300 activities for the remaining months. These include trade fairs both abroad and in Thailand, business-matching services between importers and exporters, the launch of Thai exhibitions in a variety of sectors and the promotion of Thai products and brand names within international markets.

Most of the activities will focus on new markets, namely China and Hong Kong, Russia and Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East and India. Thailand's focus has moved to new markets instead of those of Europe and the United States, because of lower regulations and free-trade agreements with some countries, Chantra said.

In addition, she said, the Middle East, Russia and Eastern Europe, India, and China had stronger economic growth and as people's purchasing powers increase, demand will increase.

The department has adjusted the export portion for new markets to 45.5 per cent and old markets to 54.5 per cent from 40 and 60 per cent. Currently, exports to new markets are growing at a rate of 42.5 per cent a year, but the value is still rather small.

Exports to Eastern Europe increased by 33.5 per cent during the first four months, more than the target of 24.5 per cent. In the Middle East export growth was 40 per cent, compared to the target of 45 per cent.

Although exports to India have dropped, the department hopes to aggressively increase export growth there by cooperating with leading department stores in India.

Pantaloons, one of India's largest department stores, will soon sell Thai products in its branches nationwide, said Chantra.

In addition, a further 66 activities will be launched in China and Hong Kong, as well as 62 in Russia and Eastern Europe, 23 in India, 29 in the Middle East, 13 in Africa, 59 in Western Europe, 30 in the United States and 19 in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Chantra pointed out four negative factors that had contributed to a slowdown in exports. These were the spiralling price of oil, which has affected manufacturing costs and transportation, the appreciation of the baht, a rise in interest rates and waning purchasing power.

Sectors hit particularly badly by the baht's appreciation and the high cost of manufacturing include the textiles and garment industry, construction, leather goods, kitchenware, paper and publishing.

Exporters fear that natural disasters and conflicts between oil producing countries and the US could further increase oil prices.

However, Chantra said she hoped that the oil price would decrease as a result of a compromise between Iran and the US, and a decrease in the baht's value to Bt38 to Bt39 to the dollar.

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation