Such warnings have been familiar to Thais for decades.

But how many of us really take notice of the weather warnings?

"Only fishermen take our warnings seriously. Many call us back asking for more details while those in other regions might not think the warning is important as their work might not be related to the weather," the Meteorology Department's Maethee Mahayo-sanant said yesterday.

A meteorologist with 20 years' experience, Maethee said there was a belief among Thais that natural devastation would not occur here due to the country's landscape and geography. But, it was time for people to change that mindset as the planet is now under the influence of global warming which could create unexpected weather conditions.

Many survivors of the deadly floods in Uttaradit conceded they had ignored messages from the weather bureau and other disaster-warning agencies. Instead of running away to safety before disaster struck, they calmly stayed home until it was too late and waters brought devastation.

Maethee said global warming could also be blamed for natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, which struck Louisiana last year, and Typhoon Chanchu in the South China Sea recently.

The flash-floods in Uttaradit and other northern provinces showed a link between the melting of a big glacier in Argentina early this year and Thailand, he said. Global warming raised the temperature of the earth's atmosphere and oceans, leading to more rainfall. It also magnified the destructive power and frequency of storms.

"It's time for Thais to closely monitor weather forecasts and pay serious attention to advisories and alerts as something unexpected could happen," he said, adding he hoped to see people here follow forecasts as routinely as those in the Philippines or the US.

But the reliability of the department is still being called into question by many people who wonder why its warnings seemed to have become accurate only in recent years, while it has been giving disaster warnings for decades.

Kansee Boonprakob, a climatologist at Ramkhamhaeng University, agreed with Maethee's theory on the role of global warming. She said daily predictions of the weather was not enough.

"We have to know the long-term scenario of weather conditions, if global warming will create any permanent change to the weather conditions of the country or not. Then we could predict within that frame," Kansee said. She is researching the impact of global warming in Thailand.

One thing she predicts is that temperatures in the Northeast are going to be higher than at present.

Meanwhile, Greenpeace's chief in SE Asia, Emmy Hafild, said the tragedy of Uttaradit should serve as a wake-up call for Thailand to work together with its poorer neighbours - the Philippines, Indonesia and Cambodia - to press for  research, policy-making and mitigation measures on the impacts of climate change.

Pennapa Hongthong

The Nation