He believes the shocks from three core risk factors - interest rates, oil prices and foreign exchange rates - will intensify in the second half of the year.

"Right now, the actions taken by some business operators, particularly for their knowledge base and competitiveness, aren't enough for the higher risks. But it isn't too late to make progress," Kosit said yesterday.

Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) does not ensure that individual businesses achieve their goals, he said.

"The government's policy on economic stimulation does not guarantee there will be no business failures. The package [if any] would result in a higher growth rate of GDP. But it would not help anything if business operators are still weak," he said.

Although the country would face higher risk factors from now on, Bangkok Bank maintains its projection for GDP growth this year at 4-4.5 per cent, based on the still rosy outlook for exports.

The bank now sees first-quarter GDP expanding at 5-5.5 per cent, which is faster than its earlier projection, due mainly to exports. The bank expects first-quarter export value to increase by 17.3 per cent year on year, while net export volume in the quarter would shoot up by 143.8 per cent.

First-quarter exports are expected to get a boost from the global economy, particularly the large importing countries. Japan and China enjoyed GDP growth of 4.8 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively, in the opening quarter.

The bank's earlier projection of GDP growth for the first quarter is below 5 per cent. This assumed the economy would be thrown off track by political turmoil and upward movements in interest rates, inflation rates and oil prices.

However, export growth for the first quarter would be driven by four robust sectors - electronics, vehicle and auto parts, computer and spare parts, and rubber.

Bangkok Bank sees private consumption and private investment slowing down in the first quarter to 1.2 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively.

Somruedi Banchongduang

 The Nation