In the next few days, the Burmese junta leaders have a critical decision to make. One choice is to remain an isolated pariah state, such as it has been for decades. Or it can reform itself and join the international community, integrating with the rest of the world like a normal nation. The first choice would be easy, because the junta would not have to do anything - just cling to power and maintain the status quo. Since 1988, the military leaders have ruled with an iron fist over what was once the most dynamic country in Southeast Asia, cracking down on any moves by pro-democracy groups, including politicians and civilians.

So far, they have proved, foolishly, that they can stand up to international pressure and allow their people to languish in misery and deprivation. They thought if they were stubborn enough, the global community would cave in, because after all, there are tons of problems around the world besides the Burma question that require international attention.

The second choice would be the better one, but it would require much sacrifice that the junta leaders are not readily known for. Some promising signs have come out of Rangoon this past week, but the future of Burma remains very bleak. Ibrahim Gambari, the UN under-secretary-general for political affairs, visited Rangoon and met with Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. He was the highest-ranking UN official yet to visit the beleaguered country. His meeting with Suu Kyi gave rise to hopes she might be released when her house-arrest term expires on Saturday.

Gambari's insistence that Suu Kyi be part of the political process should serve as a good indication that any political settlement inside Burma requires her participation. But they do not address the question of how the junta leaders might be persuaded to move the national reconciliation process forwards. They have resisted progress in this regard ever since the May 1990 election, trying systematically to undermine the opposition movement, especially Suu Kyi's status as pro-democracy leader. Suu Kyi's freedom will remain a pivotal issue that the Rangoon dictatorship must come to terms with.

If she remains confined to her home, like she has been for 10 of the past 17 years, then even if the regime does become more cooperative with international organisations, so as to attract more humanitarian assistance, the international community will not budge.

The recent possible softening of the pariah state's stance has been the outcome of two years of persistent pressure on the part of its Asean peers, which have suffered greatly from the constant lies by Rangoon that she would be freed and political reform continue.

Asean wants to see tangible political progress inside Burma, especially some level of formal engagement between the junta leaders and the opposition. The regional grouping is no longer willing to speak on behalf of this regime, as it has plunged Asean's creditability and image to an all-time low. Asean leaders have pressed Burma for greater reform. They have asked the pariah state to rebuild trust with its fellow Asean members and work together in a collaborative spirit, in order to improve the situation.

Unfortunately, the regime has always had its own game plan, which was evident in the seven-point democracy plan it put forward three years ago. The plan entailed the regime remaining in the driver's seat and perpetuating its grip on power. Under the plan, the constitutional drafting process would be completed by the end of the year, to be followed by a national referendum. The junta leaders are hoping that when a general election is held to legitimise their leadership, the regional and international outcries will have subsided. The election process continues to be an instrument that the regime manipulates to its own advantage, but the wholesale electoral fraud of May 1990 remains fresh in the international community's memory.

By Saturday, we will learn which option the Rangoon junta will choose, and this will reveal its attitude towards the world and its plans for the future. Then, the international community - but especially the UN and Asean - must respond.