SIDELINES
Atmosphere rough as Thaksin seeks smooth re-entry

Caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, still on an on-and-off leave of absence, has got into a pathetic situation. He needs to get back to his job and resume full control of the government or face the risk of being left out for good.
The nullification of the general election by the Constitutional Court earlier this month was an unexpected twist in his political gamble. If he were to adhere to pledge he gave, when departing on his long leave, that he would return only after a new prime minister had been elected, it would certainly be a long wait.That's why his minions and underlings came up with an unabashed call for him to get back to Government House to resume the war on narcotics, which have become rampant. Thaksin himself was no less pretentious, saying that he was eager to get back to work to help the poor again. He is fully aware that this is the only good chance to do so, never mind how ridiculous the claims of his petty cronies may sound. But there is a hitch, so to speak, a very serious one. Doing so would be a breach of his pledge that he would be back only after an election produced a new leader. That has not happened yet. Somehow a ploy must be created to override the promise. There would be nothing strange if Thaksin happened to conveniently forget or simply refused to keep his word. One cannot become a politician if one does not have the courage to disappoint people in one's own interests, especially for survival and a prolonged grip on power. His on-and-off leave of absence has been regarded as a cheap trick of gutter politics, Thai style. It's not only that such behaviour has debased the moral tone of politics, if it ever existed: the way he treated the premiership as merely a come-and-go job is surely an affront to all of us. When asked whether his peculiar behaviour meant that he would soon resume full charge of government, Thaksin replied: "I will be selective, depending on the significance of each job." This means his letter for leave of absence is an open-ended one with no specific terms and validity. It allows him to come and go as he pleases. On Friday he dropped by for a leisurely cup of coffee at Siam Paragon and then flew off to Hua Hin for an audience with His Majesty the King. Is there something wrong with his sense of priorities and propriety? Not really. This is the manner of a billionaire long spoiled by the power of money and raw power of politics, who happens to be the only one in the country's history to enjoy and maximise the usefulness of having both at the same time. Yet even with money and power, Thaksin is finding it difficult to make a smooth return to his seat. There are court cases pending critical enough for him to lose the right to participate in politics and probably his freedom, depending on which ones materialise and have the most staying power. There are a few options left him to hang on to power. Among the serious threats to his job is a verdict from the Administrative Court on whether his leave of absence has actually deprived him of the right to resume active duty. Things as they stand now don't look good at all. Thaksin's adversaries are engaging him with more court cases. His exposed toes are very tempting for those who want to test his true grit. He knows that a series of legal defeats and setbacks means that he is facing a hostile judicial power. These past weeks we have seen a not-so-subtle challenge to the military and judicial establishments among Thaksin's combative underlings and foot soldiers, who barked with unseemly nerve at the advice of judicial and military figures to those who are the "main national problems" to stand down. The refusal to heed this recommendation for the sake of national unity and harmony has surprised many people. What has Thaksin got that keeps his cronies and political hatchet men in various units loyal and even willing to face serious reprisals? Money and power, of course, but there is something else. It's a perceived support from his friends in the Army who command powerful forces. The Election Commission's dogged refusal to step down despite deafening public demands, though there are only three commissioners left of the original five, proves a strong political bond between Thaksin's power and the Commission and the fact that they share the same fate and chances of survival. If the Commission has to go owing to strong public pressure or court verdicts, it spells doom for Thaksin's power structure, whose base is being chipped away at, together with his previous image of being invincible and beyond challenge. This coming week will be one of very crucial power play that could get messy if Thaksin's underlings and supporters want to play rough, since they know well that they have an extremely slim chance of going against the legal tide in court with damning evidence tying the party's head honcho and financier to sinister acts. It's not that the country has no solution to the present deadlock because Thaksin and the EC are clinging to their power: the embattled billionaire faces far more serious risks, a matter of life and death in politics. He may have to call on his big money to produce influence when he needs it most. In the end, Thaksin and his arrogant lot may find out that justice is more than they can bear when the power of good prevails. Sopon Onkgara
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