With the dissolution of the House of Representatives on February 24 and the new Parliament to be convened by November 22 (30 days after the election date), Thailand will not have a fully credible and effective government for almost a year. Will the country's economy not suffer from the uncertainty associated with this? What are some of the possible reasons behind the distant date for the elections?

Under tremendous pressure from the public to resign, the EC, or what is left of it, is behaving strangely. Rather than bowing out, the three commissioners turn around and plunge right back into the political cauldron and reclaim their role in the quagmire. As if enough damage has not been done already.

The government also seems to be playing a cynical power game. Despite realising that its legitimacy has eroded beyond repair and that divisiveness within the body politic is reaching a point of no redemption, the Occupant of Thai Koo Fah Building is still behaving as though everything is normal and he still calls all the shots in the name of the people. If there was any message from Up High that his time should be limited, his power should be contained and his arrogance checked, there is no apparent effect upon him. Nor upon his cohorts in the ruling party: they seem to be oblivious to the Message that was broadcast for all to hear.

What is going on? For one thing, there must have been a deal between the government and the EC prior to the decision on the October 22 election date. Political pundits were rooting for a date beyond the "90-day party membership" requirement for candidates, as stipulated by the Constitution, so that former MPs could switch parties or even set up new parties. But the EC turned around and, claiming the majority voice of the "minor parties" at the parley it summoned, recommended a date so far in the future that it threatens the effective functioning of the country.

It's as if the Prime Minister is thumbing his nose at those who wish to see him leave the political stage soon, saying: "You want me to go but here I am digging my heels in and will stay as long as I wish, even as a caretaker PM. What do you say to that?"

Reliable sources with access to the powers that be confided to some of us "politicos" that a battle line has been drawn. There is a proxy war unfolding before our eyes. All the pressure that has been brought to bear upon the political principals has come to nought. The nullification of the Royal Decree dissolving the House of Representatives on February 24, the Courts' verdict to declare the April 2 general election unconstitutional, the declaration that the EC meeting to decide on the new election date was illegal - all these should, under normal circumstances, have been enough for the entire existing edifice of power to leave the scene. But not this time.

The game plan now is to prepare for a long drawn out war. The "power of the incumbent" is a source of confidence for the Thaksin camp. More populist policies will be initiated and more largesse will be poured out to slake the unquenchable thirst of the countryside. This is a power base that must be maintained at all costs. Time, it appears, is on the side of the ruling party; the longer it takes, the weaker the opposition of all stripes will become.

On closer examination, the leadership of the Thai Rak Thai Party probably calculated that the later the election date was set the more advantage they would have. Contrary to conventional belief that the ruling party would disintegrate as the result of mass defections, its leaders are counting on the power of money to ensure that the members stay bought. And that is one thing in which other major parties cannot compete with Thai Rak Thai - the money to keep former MPs on a generous payroll. And the promise of money to bankroll the election to come is also attractive enough to keep them in line. So, only small-scale defections are anticipated, despite the unlocking of the 90-day party membership rule.

There is concern that the country will suffer without an effective government, that the economy will not be able to sustain the pressure of uncertainty and lack of funds due to the inability to enact a new budget bill. But it is also expected that any downturn in the economy will work to the government's advantage by reinforcing the public perception that only Thaksin can manage the nation's economy effectively. As it is, it will appear that the economy is suffering because Thaksin has been driven out of office. The message then will be clear: "If you want the economy to grow, vote Thai Rak Thai back into power."

But Thai Rak Thai is no longer the only power centre in town. The effort to contain and checkmate the damaging influence of the ruling party seems to be ready to respond to Thaksin's sinister designs, blow by blow.

The courts are united in their stand, as reflected in their statement after their first meeting: "We shall decide on cases before us in the same direction." Their unwavering resolve now is to get rid of the three current members of the Election Commission. They have declared in no uncertain terms that the EC is the source of all political troubles now and that without a new EC the next election cannot be genuinely free and fair. And they will not be party to guaranteeing the integrity of the new election under the current EC. They too are ready for a battle. They perceive themselves as having a Mandate from Heaven to sort out all the political ills of the country.

It seems that the military establishment is agitated as well. The latest resignation from the Election Commission happens to involve a former general in the Royal Thai Army. We can surmise that a lot of persuasion and lobbying must have gone on before General Charupat Ruangsuwan decided to break ranks. They consider themselves "comrades in arms" with the highest mission to save the nation and its institutions from the brink of chaos. The latest word is that the Commanders in Chief of all wings of the Armed Forces are seeking an audience with their Supreme Commander. They too are prepared for the battle.

We Thais are disoriented in this swirling, twisting political tornado. From the absolute certainty of a one-man show during the prime of the CEO-style government, we have come to a caretaker leadership with no confidence and eroding legitimacy, when no one and no institution seems to be in control and certain of their own role and fate, let alone the direction of the country.

One thing is certain. No country can drift in the sea of uncertainty for too long. This state of confusion has to come to an end soon. All stakeholders in our society are now clamouring for political clarity before the situation reaches a point of no return.

Surin Pitsuwan is former foreign minister and an executive member of the Democrat Party.

Surin Pitsuwan