IDC forecasts the world IT market will increase from US$1.15 trillion (Bt43.5 trillion) this year to $1.35 trillion in 2009. Of that, about 21 per cent will be in emerging markets.

Philippe de Marcillac, senior vice president of IDC's International Business Unit, said emerging markets for the IT industry are Brazil, Russia, India and China - known as BRIC. They are expected to be worth almost $120 billion by 2009, equal to Japan's IT spending.

The four are expected to grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.7 per cent, and will increase from almost $60 billion in 2004 to almost $120 billion in 2009.

India and China are recognised as emerging markets in terms of being large IT exporters, exporting 70 per cent of the countries' IT industry value, with the remaining 30 per cent being their domestic markets. However, India is recognised as a software exporter while China is a hardware exporter.

Brazil and Russia are emerging markets in terms of their domestic sales rather than exports.

"India's IT industry revenue is expected to grow with a CAGR of 21 per cent and is forecast to be worth more than $60 billion by 2009, of which 70 per cent is the export market including IT exports and business process outsourcing exports," said Marcillac.

China is recognised as the top hi-tech exporter and the major manufacturing centre as well as a large technology market. China is the third-largest telecommunications services market, worth $72 billion, and the sixth-largest IT market, at $35 billion.

"China and India are expected to have the world's highest gross domestic products by 2050. Even though GDP is counted by population numbers and the country's total revenue, IT is expected to influence the GDP growth rate as well," said Marcillac.

He said the top economy in the world would be top in the IT market as well.

Thailand is also another emerging IT market and the country needs to invest more in local infrastructure and strengthen its IT industry through electronic government and knowledge-based economy initiatives, he said.

 "If Thailand at this stage is to focus on exports more than strengthening the country, it can only do so by exporting low value-added products that cannot compete with other countries," said Marcillac.

In the next five to 10 years, Marcillac said Thailand would be able to export high value-added technology. Potential domestic markets in the Asia-Pacific region as well as Thailand include banking, manufacturing, and government sectors. The manufacturing industry's IT spending in Asia Pacific is expected to grow by 5 per cent from 2005 to 2009, from $39.49 billion to $48.8 billion in 2009.

Meanwhile, government sectors' IT spending in Asia Pacific is expected to grow with CAGR at 6 per cent from 2005 to 2009, from $31.99 billion to $40.67 billion in 2009. Thailand's government sector's IT spending is expected to have 10-per-cent CAGR from 2005 to 2009.

asina@nationgroup.com

Asina Pornwasin

The Nation