If Thaksin were to stay away from politics for good, the immediate negative impact would certainly be the break-up of the Thai Rak Thai Party. Factional leaders within the party are well aware that without Thaksin they would face public wrath and disgrace.

What's more, they have been together for so long and managed to avoid open conflict due to their joint pursuit of vested interests and mutual survival. Their desperate need for self-preservation will be seen once the Constitution Court delivers its verdict tomorrow on the legality of the April 2 general election.

If the verdict sounds unfavourable to Thai Rak Thai and labels the Election Commission as a wrongdoer, not only will the country face a murky future in the short term, but the political front will become more eventful, with pro-democracy activists demanding that heads must roll for all the mischief-making.

Thaksin could not resist the pressure within himself to resume active leadership. His power would gradually atrophy through long disuse; disobedience might arise within the party, leading to a challenge to his political strength.

The faction leaders maintain loyalty to Thaksin from necessity rather than adoration or for his good looks. They are still afraid of his immense power and control over the legal machinery, which could make their lives very miserable in case of open revolt.

That's why Thaksin wants to impress upon the faction leaders that he is still the boss. Signs of dissent must be subdued.

Yet blow after blow of political setbacks have made it difficult for Thaksin to regain public acceptance, particularly among the educated urban class. His so-called grass-roots support, the bastion of his support, has not been too deep since easy funding through populist programmes dried up.

His recent foreign trips to have coffee sessions with world leaders did not produce the desired results. He was seen in a photo only with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while his encounter with other leaders received no news coverage. Also quite embarrassing were the refusals of the Philippines and Malaysian leaders to meet him.

The strong message for Thaksin's political antennae is that not only does he appear disgraced and rejected at home, he appears to be a pariah on the international scene as well. All the political chums in the big league that he claims to have are obviously distancing themselves from him.

Who wants to rub shoulders with a national leader denounced by his own people and head of a regime plagued by massive corruption and cronyism and marked by decay in the political structure, the economy and the sense of right and wrong due to a misguided capitalist streak?

The public is anxiously awaiting the ruling of the Constitution Court. There have been indications in the past few days that the current stalemate could be broken, paving the way for a solution acceptable to political parties.

The Election Commission, now discredited by a series of scandals, could choose to disband itself as a result of public revulsion and a court ruling. We would not have been in this unfortunate situation if the commission had enforced the rules of fair play with impartiality.

Currently, Thaksin's power structure is being corroded by a chain of events. Legal proceedings, skeletons in the closet being exposed and the resurfacing of corruption scandals are convincing the people that the men who run the show at Government House are not what they are supposed to be.

And what goes around comes around. Thaksin faced yet another acute embarrassing episode last week when an American businessman threw a criminal charge at him for wrongdoing in a failed business deal several years ago. Thaksin dragged him to court but lost, and now it's the American's turn to settle scores.

The overwhelming adversity should convince Thaksin that it might be in his best interest if he left politics for good to spend his wealth and enjoy life. If his addiction to power gets too strong, making him more determined to fight to the end, then we can expect more months of uncertainty and noisy shouting in the streets.

No matter how long it takes, the people can wait. A few more months or even years - if the country can survive Thaksin's ways of doing things.

Sopon Onkgara