While opponents of caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra prepare to celebrate, as they believe the Constitution Court will cancel the April 2 election on Monday, the verdict could unleash fresh chaos and further intensify the political crisis.

If the court rules the election illegal, following up key cases passed on by the Ombudsman's Office which questioned the electoral process, immediate pressure will be put on the Election Commission as it has allegedly sided with the Thai Rak Thai government.

As a small number of People's Alliance for Democracy members have camped in front of the EC headquarters for weeks to oust the four EC commissioners, a "guilty" ruling would strengthen the PAD's demand for their heads.

If they refuse to quit, as they keep saying they will, they may well face a bigger and more aggressive rally led by Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang.

A big question will also arise. Will all the political parties and the public accept the "guilty" commissioners to manage another election?

The PAD and the opposition parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon - would surely distrust the body's involvement and they might boycott the elections again.

But if the commissioners finally surrender to the growing pressure and resign, the 200 newly elected senators could find themselves in limbo as they have not been approved by the EC.

It means that they cannot get to work. Without the Lower and Upper houses sitting, new election commissioners could not be chosen.

The Constitution states that four of 10 members of an EC selection panel must be members of political parties in the House but at the moment there is no Parliament.

Where would the four selection members come from?

How would the selection panel convene?

The final selection also requires the Senate to pick the EC members. Although the outgoing senators could act as caretakers until the new Senate convenes, they have no authority to carry out the task.

A similar situation emerged recently when the caretaker Senate decided to postpone the selection for the nine vacant seats of the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC).

The Senate speaker has held the task over for the new Senate, claiming current members should not be involved now that their six-year term had run out.

Beyond the EC trouble is the issue of 486 newly-elected MPs. Almost all of them are Thai Rak Thai members.

Leaders of the ruling party insist that they will follow the court's ruling, even if it cancels the poll.

But many victorious Thai Rak Thai members have vowed not to bow to an "unjust ruling" and staunchly believe the election was legal in every aspect.

A move by a group of new Thai Rak Thai MPs on Tuesday, which threatened to impeach the Administrative Court's judges if they cancelled the election, shows that the ruling party would not easily raise the white flag of surrender to the courts.

The Constitution Court could become the first of the top three courts to take on the might of Thai Rak Thai if the verdict on Monday comes out against the ruling party.

What then will the new Thai Rak Thai MPs do?

Will they hold to their pledge to sue for compensation for the financial loss they suffered during the election campaign?

There appears to be no end in sight to the political crisis.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation