democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is greeted with banners telling him to quit when arriving Chiang Mai airport last month.

While the anti-Thaksin Shinawatra coalition hopes the country's three top courts will nullify the April 2 snap election, the timing of any new round of elections to follow would be crucial if harmony is to be restored to the country.

If the election is held before the process of amending the Constitution begins, the potential for a flare-up in national tensions would be great.

Since caretaker Prime Minister -in-abstentia Thaksin declared shortly after the recent poll he would not assume the premiership for a third term, the tensions which had loomed over the country for several months were reduced drastically - to such a degree, in fact, that people felt their lives might actually get back to normal.

The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) has halted its mass rallies nationwide - at least until Tuesday, and that will only be a low-key affair to respect His Majesty the King's wishes.

Thaksin's loyal supporters, mainly grassroots voters, stopped their challenges - or in some cases confrontations - against the PAD in a bid to keep Thaksin in power.

Married couples stopped arguing over who was at the heart of the problem -Thaksin or his fierce rival Sondhi Limthongkul.

Passengers no longer worried some "insane" taxi driver would "invite" them to get out of their car somewhere on the way home if they said the wrong thing about the embattled prime minister.

The press has returned to focus on reporting, rather than worrying whether angry protestors would "pay them a visit" and besiege their offices as a warning against "unfair and offensive" criticism of the government.

If the Supreme Court, Administrative Court or Constitution Court cancels the April 2 poll in response to appeals from the anti-Thaksin groups, however, a big concern is that this now-fading tension will flare up again and afflict the whole nation.

A new election would be dominated by a familiar story.

It would be an election to decide the fate of only one man - Thaksin Shinawatra. Do the people need him to rule this country?

Thaksin is likely to return and lead his Thai Rak Thai Party in a campaign for the new election because the political conditions have changed.

Thaksin will base his return on the claim that, when he bowed out of national politics after the recent election, he was doing so in the hope that it would lead to national reconciliation after the former opposition

parties - Democrat, Chat Thai and Mahachon - boycotted the poll.

If a new election is called before the process of amending the Constitution has begun, however, Thaksin's position is unlikely to be undermined.

Thai Rak Thai's main factions will stay with Thaksin - albeit unwillingly.

The controversial rule requiring House candidates to hold membership in a political party for 90 days before an election gives Thaksin the upper hand, as it prevents the factions from "betraying" him by switching to other parties.

Therefore, it will come as no surprise if Thai Rak Thai candidates around the country back Thaksin as the prime minister once again. They will even try

to persuade Thai Rak Thai supporters that Thaksin was attacked unfairly with "lies and allegations", and that he is innocent.

In the meantime, the three former opposition parties - particularly the Democrats - along with the PAD supporters will have no choice but to make the "Stop the Thaksin Regime" theme their central campaign message.

The problem is that the "Thaksin" issue has divided the country into pro- and anti-Thaksin camps.

Hatred between the two sides is so deep that it is unlikely to be cured in the short term.

Recent attacks by Thai Rak Thai supporters on leaders of the Democrats and the PAD during anti-Thaksin campaigns in Chiang Mai and Udon Thani, respectively prove that similar or even worse incidents could happen anywhere, anytime while the tension is still in the air.

Imagine the Democrat candidates campaigning in the Thai Rak Thai-controlled northern, northeastern and central constituencies while Thai Rak Thai contenders rally in the Democrats' stronghold of the southern provinces.

If there is to be another election, it must be after the constitutional amendments are complete, whether it is in six months or one year.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation